Millions of Americans could lose roughly $500 a month from their Social Security checks within the next seven years, and a new analysis finds no state would escape the impact if Congress leaves the program on its current course.
The report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates retirees would face an average 24% reduction in benefits if Social Security reaches the point where incoming revenue can no longer fully cover promised payments. The Social Security Administration currently projects that this could happen at the end of 2032.
That wouldn’t end Social Security payments, but it would force an across-the-board reduction in benefits unless Congress changes the law.
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A nationwide hit
The average beneficiary would lose about $500 a month under the report’s estimates.
In several states, the reductions would be even larger. Retirees in Connecticut would face the biggest average monthly decrease at $556. New Jersey, New Hampshire, Delaware and Maryland also rank near the top, with average reductions exceeding $540 a month.
The report estimates roughly 63 million people receiving retirement, survivor or dependent benefits would be affected.
“No state would be spared from the potentially devastating effects” of the projected funding gap, the organization wrote.
Many retirees depend on those checks
The challenge facing Social Security has been building for years. More baby boomers are collecting benefits, while the growth in payroll tax revenue has not kept pace.
At the same time, many retirees rely heavily on those monthly payments.
According to the Senior Citizens League, 73% of retirees depend on Social Security for more than half their income. Nearly four in 10 say it provides all of it.
For many households, a 24% reduction wouldn’t simply mean cutting back on extras; it would take away money used for groceries, prescription drugs, utility bills and housing costs.
Congress still has choices
There is some good news here, though: the projected reductions aren’t inevitable. Congress can still act.
Lawmakers could raise payroll taxes, adjust benefits, change eligibility rules or combine several approaches to close the gap.
Some proposals would require higher-income earners to pay Social Security taxes on more of their income. Others would reduce future benefits or gradually increase the retirement age.
The Social Security Administration is expected to release its annual Trustees Report later this month with updated projections.
What Congress has not settled is who should pay more, who should receive less or whether both will be required to keep full benefits in place. Until lawmakers answer that question, the 2032 deadline remains the date millions of Americans are watching.
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