A resurgence of bird flu has helped drive wholesale turkey prices about 40% higher than in 2024 as Thanksgiving approaches. The outbreak has affected almost 6.5 million turkeys in the past month, and the U.S. flock has fallen to its smallest size in 40 years.
Turkey is expected to average about $1.32 per pound, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
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Why are prices rising now?
A fall rebound of highly pathogenic avian influenza has hit poultry operations in several states, particularly in the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. An outbreak in Wisconsin has affected almost 3.6 million birds, while nearly 2 million have been exposed to the virus in Washington state, according to the USDA.
The New York Times reported that nearly 7 million birds, including 1.3 million turkeys, have been killed as a result of the outbreak.
The virus is spreading during a federal government shutdown that has curtailed routine communications by federal agencies involved in outbreak response.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which tracks human cases of bird flu and other infectious diseases, also has suspended communications with states, including up-to-date guidance on controlling any potential outbreak, the Times reported.
How tight is the national turkey supply?
USDA data show an expected 2025 production of 4.8 billion pounds, about 5% below 2024. Farmers raised 195 million turkeys this year, down 3% year over year and 36% below the 1996 peak, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Since 2022, bird flu has affected about 18.7 million turkeys, the Farm Bureau said.
What are producers and retailers saying?
The National Turkey Federation told Axios it is “confident in the frozen turkey supply,” though supply could tighten for fresh or specific-size birds if flu cases rise.
“U.S. turkey growers and processors have been working around the clock, managing through challenges like avian influenza and avian metapneumovirus,” said Leslee Oden, the federation’s president and CEO.
Butterball told Axios it remains well-stocked with plenty of options. Some chains plan promotions to blunt higher costs. Aldi announced a $40 Thanksgiving meal for 10, including a 14-pound turkey and nine sides.
