The race for control of the U.S. Senate is getting more competitive, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moving two races from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
Texas and Iowa are the two new additions to Cook’s Toss Up column.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is running to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.
But Cook said Hinson faces strong political headwinds, writing that “the tough political environment has hit Iowa especially hard, as the agriculture-dependent economy contends with President Trump’s tariffs, along with the rising prices for fertilizer and diesel due to the Iran war.”
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The race in Iowa
Hinson is running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist who ran as a centrist and defeated a more progressive candidate in the primary.
Trump won Iowa over Kamala Harris by more than 13 points in 2024.
Cook’s Jessica Taylor said it should be “extraordinarily difficult” for Democrats to flip a seat Trump won by more than 13 points, but polling she has seen shows the Senate race becoming increasingly competitive.
The race in Texas
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is trying to flip the seat currently held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
Cornyn lost in the Republican primary to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after Paxton received a late endorsement from Trump. But Paxton has been dogged by scandals, and Cook said more Texas voters view him negatively than positively, leaving him “underwater by double digits.”
Talarico, meanwhile, has a net-positive favorability rating.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, leaving Democrats needing to gain four seats in November to take control.
Six Toss Ups to watch
With Iowa and Texas added, Cook now rates six Senate races as Toss Ups.
In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking reelection after finishing second in this week’s primary behind Democrat Mary Peltola. As Straight Arrow News reported, both advanced to the November election.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted is seeking a full term after being appointed to fill Vice President JD Vance’s former seat. He faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is trying to return to the Senate after losing his 2024 reelection bid to Sen. Bernie Moreno.
Cook said those six races are likely to determine control of the Senate, with the political environment currently favoring Democrats.
“The downstream impact of Trump’s sinking approval rating, along with historic headwinds facing the majority party, has started to open up seats that once looked like long shots,” Cook wrote.
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