In a twist not many oddsmakers saw coming, Robert Francis Prevost became the new pope, taking the name Leo XIV. His unexpected selection earned some lucky gamblers huge payouts. Prevost, the first-ever American pope, was nowhere near the top of betting boards.
Yet, a few sharp-eyed bettors turned small wagers into massive windfalls.
Millions wagered on papal outcome
Gamblers placed bets on everything from who would be the next pope to what name he would choose. According to Forbes, nearly $40 million was wagered on just two online betting platforms alone.
In addition to betting, more than 60,000 people participated in Fantapapa, a fantasy-style game. Players selected 11 cardinals for their “team” and chose a captain they thought most likely to win the papacy.
Top favorites fall short
The betting markets and Fantapapa leaderboards had clear favorites. The top three names were Cardinals Pietro Parolin, Matteo Zuppi and Luis Antonio Tagle.
When white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday, May 8, bettors rushed to back Parolin. According to Forbes, his odds surged as many believed he had secured the papacy.
But in a shocking turn, Robert Francis Prevost was elected instead. His victory not only surprised the world but also triggered massive payouts.
Forbes reported that six users on the blockchain betting platform Polymarket made at least $20,000 each by betting on Prevost. One bettor turned a $1,000 stake into nearly $64,000.
On Kalshi, another user had a $52,000 payout, winning on a wager that had just a 1% chance of success.
Prevost overlooked on betting boards
After the selection, BetMGM reported Prevost was at +5000 odds, with 19% of wagers on Parolin and 58% of total money backed Tagle.
Prevost wasn’t only overlooked by gamblers. He also flew under the media radar.
American Bishop Robert Barron told CBS News, many were speculating that, “if America is running the world politically, culturally, economically – they don’t want America running the world religiously. I think there’s some truth to that.”
