Beyond China-US tariffs, officials warn of ‘tsunami’ of cheap Chinese goods

• The United States and China imposed new, higher tariffs in a continuing trade dispute. China warned that no one wins in a tariff war, but long-term competition in global manufacturing is now at the forefront.
• China’s export growth and shift toward factory expansion have increased its share of global trade to 32%.
• U.S. officials remain wary of a potential flood of Chinese goods that could undercut American industries.

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The world’s two largest economies are ramping up their trade battle, each imposing steep new tariffs as tensions over fair trade practices continue to rise.

The United States clarified this week that its newly announced 125% tariff on certain Chinese goods is in addition to an existing 20% tariff tied to fentanyl-related enforcement.

China strikes back with retaliatory measures

In response, China imposed its own 125% tariff on American goods and added several U.S. companies to its trade blacklist. Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated Friday their position that “there are no winners in a tariff war.”

“There is no winner in a tariff war and going against the world will only isolate itself.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping

However, some reports suggest that China’s retaliation may not stop with tariffs. Former White House officials warned a wave, or “tsunami,” of low-cost Chinese goods could soon flood global markets, posing a serious challenge to U.S. industries.

China’s industrial output surges

China has significantly expanded its role as the world’s leading manufacturer. Its exports rose by 13% in 2023 and increased another 17% in 2024. Since 2000, China’s share of global exports climbed from 6% to 32%, and it continues to rise.

That level of production now surpasses the combined output of manufacturing powerhouses like the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Britain, according to the latest Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development report.

The New York Times reported China shifted its domestic investment strategy from housing construction to factory development, financing nearly $2 trillion in industrial expansion.

‘Tsunami is coming for everyone’

Prior to Trump’s latest tariffs and even second term, the Biden administration was raising concerns over China’s grip on manufacturing, increasing some tariffs on electric cars and keeping tariffs on China in place from Trump’s first term.

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai under the Biden Administration warned of a global surge in Chinese goods, saying, “The tsunami is coming for everyone.”

Concerns of “dumping” of cheap goods

China’s economy has struggled to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting leaders to prioritize manufacturing and exports. Critics say this strategy is leading to the “dumping” of cheap goods into foreign markets.

“Europe cannot just accept that strategically viable industries constituting the European industrial base are being priced out of the market,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said.

The European Union expressed concern that Chinese products, priced significantly lower, could outcompete domestically produced goods. Many consumers already opt for the more affordable Chinese-made alternatives.

Import dependency highlighted

According to the International Trade Center, the United States imported $440 billion worth of goods from China in 2024. That includes:

• One-fifth of all imported iron and steel products.
• Over one-fourth of all electronics.
• One-third of imported footwear.
• Three-quarters of all toys.

The U.S. trade deficit with China stood at approximately $295.4 billion in 2024.

Beyond tariffs: The global impact of China’s strategy

While China increased its tariff rate to 125% and the U.S. to 145%, its broader economic strategy remains under scrutiny from the U.S. and its allies. American and allied officials continue to monitor what they see as an impending surge of Chinese goods into the global marketplace with former White House officials warning a “tsunami” is on the horizon.