California is a long way from Washington, D.C., but a growing number of the state’s residents seem to think it’s not far enough. A new poll shows that more than 4 in 10 Californians favor withdrawing from the United States, reflecting the strongest support to date for secession.
The poll, conducted for an organization that advocates for “greater self-governance for California,” comes at a fraught time in the relationship between the federal government and its most populous and wealthiest state.
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Gov. Gavin Newsom has sued President Donald Trump over his deployment of thousands of California National Guard troops and Marines in response to demonstrations against immigration enforcement practices in Los Angeles.
Newsom also has suggested that California might withhold billions in taxes from the federal government if Trump follows through on threats to cut federal funding to the state.
44% back secession
The poll found that 44% of respondents supported the idea of California’s peacefully seceding from the United States. However, a slight majority of 54% opposed the idea.
YouGov conducted the poll from June 11 to 23 on behalf of the Independent California Institute, a nonprofit that has called for the state to become “a fully functioning sovereign and autonomous nation.” The survey of 500 Californians has a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.
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California pays $83 billion more in federal taxes than it receives in federal funding, according to the Rockefeller Institute of Government.
Half of the respondents said they trust their state government more to solve California’s problems than the federal government. Although most didn’t support secession, nearly three-fourths agreed that California would be better off with “special autonomous status” within the United States. That status would allow California to adopt laws that may run counter to federal statutes but meet its own needs.
Polls have assessed Californians’ opinions on secession since at least 2014. Just 16% supported the idea in a 2018 poll, but the numbers spiked after Trump’s election in 2016 and after the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters. Still, the latest survey shows more support for secession –– dubbed “Calexit” –– than in either of those polls.
“This is a record high poll result for secession,” the Independent California executive director, Coyote Marin, said in a statement. “At the same time, it indicates that passing the Calexit initiative or something similar would be a steep uphill climb, especially without special autonomous status as an option.”
Escalating feud
The Constitution contains no mechanism for a state to leave the Union, and no state has tried to secede since the Civil War. In Texas, however, the state Republican Party last year backed a referendum that would allow the state to “reassert its status as an independent nation.” A proposal to put the question before voters failed in the state legislature in 2023.
No ballot initiatives have been proposed in California, and Newsom has not commented on the new poll.
However, Newsom is in an escalating feud with Trump, who last month threatened to deny California’s request for $40 billion to help recover from wildfires that scorched Southern California in January.
Calling the governor “Newscum,” Trump said opposition to his sending troops to Los Angeles could affect his decision on aid.
“You know, hatred is never a good thing in politics,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “When you don’t like somebody, don’t respect somebody, it’s harder for that person to get money if you’re on top.”
Newsom responded by suggesting California might withhold taxes from the federal government if Trump cuts funding to the state.
A study by the Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York found that California pays $83 billion more in federal taxes than it receives in federal funding. Only 10 other states receive less than they pay, the study found, but California’s deficit is almost as large as the others combined.
It is unclear whether a state can legally withhold taxes from the federal government. Tara Gallegos, a spokeswoman for Newsom, told a California news outlet, Cal Matters, that the state was merely exploring “whether there are potential options that would allow it to retain some of the funding it typically sends the federal government.”
