California Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency Monday as Pacific Ocean temperatures climbed even higher over the weekend, adding to evidence that this El Niño has already reached “very strong” status and could strengthen further.
The proclamation allows California to mobilize resources ahead of winter storms, including staging flood-fighting equipment, preparing roads and infrastructure and helping communities reduce the risks of flooding, landslides and coastal damage. The urgency comes as forecasters watch unusually warm water continue to build across the equatorial Pacific.
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National Weather Service meteorologist Jared Maples told Straight Arrow that temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region — the primary area used to measure El Niño — have now edged above 2 degrees above normal. That crosses the threshold for a very strong El Niño.
“It’s heating up,” Maples said.
How strong could El Niño get?
That’s now one of the biggest questions facing forecasters. Maples said the current outlook shows greater than 90% probability of strong or very strong conditions persisting into January. Even into February, he said, the probability of a very strong El Niño remains around 75%.
“The strength of it should peak sometime in that time frame between now and January,” Maples said. Even after ocean temperatures peak, El Niño won’t simply disappear.
“Even when you’re at a very strong El Niño, getting that water to cool, you’ll still be in moderate to strong categories for several months going into the spring,” Maples said.
But could the Pacific get even warmer? Maples said it’s possible, but ocean temperatures depend on several factors, including wind patterns, ocean circulation and what’s happening beneath the surface.
“The main story is that we would expect that the very strong conditions would persist,” Maples said. “How warm it gets — that’s something yet to be determined. It’s something that’s not as easy to predict exactly where it might peak,” Maples added. “It’s just one of those things that you have to watch and see.”
California isn’t taking chances
California officials are preparing as if a significant storm season could be ahead. Newsom’s emergency proclamation directs agencies to stage sandbags, pumps and other flood-fighting supplies. The California Department of Transportation is preparing road-closure, traffic-control and snow-removal equipment, while the California National Guard could be called on for flood response, search and rescue, engineering and logistics.
“We are not waiting for this season’s storms to be on our doorstep,” California Office of Emergency Services Director Caroline Thomas Jacobs said.
The concern isn’t simply rain. A powerful El Niño can increase California’s risk of repeated heavy rain, mountain snow, strong winds, coastal flooding, landslides and debris flows. Maples said extremely dry ground can make the first rounds of heavy rain particularly dangerous.
“When you first pour water onto a dry surface like that, the first thing that’s going to do before you moisten up the several inches of soil is that it runs off like it’s rock,” Maples said.
That creates flash-flood potential. If repeated storms eventually saturate the ground, the threat can shift toward mudslides, debris flows and additional runoff.
A warm winter doesn’t mean no snow
The effects won’t be limited to California. Maples cautioned against one of the biggest misconceptions surrounding El Niño: that it automatically means a warm, rainy winter with little snow.
Seasonal temperatures could average above normal while still producing periods of significant cold. Forecasters are watching atmospheric patterns that can allow Arctic air to plunge south. The bigger question is whether those cold outbreaks eventually collide with moisture from an energized southern storm track. If they do, Maples said January and February could get interesting.
“Don’t count your chickens,” Maples said. “You get into January and February, and you get these indices that come together in the right way, and you could get some pretty moisture-laden snowstorms.”
Winter could set the stage for spring flooding
El Niño’s impacts could stretch beyond winter. If significant precipitation falls across the northern Mississippi River basin, Maples said water moving downstream could increase river flooding risks in the spring and summer.
“If you’re not seeing a lot of rain and you’re getting all that moisture up to the north, and it continues to accumulate and push water down the Mississippi, that will just increase the chances, the odds that we would eventually be in that river flooding theme going into spring and summer,” Maples said.
Parts of the drought-stricken West could actually benefit from the pattern. Maples said areas stretching from Oregon through parts of Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas could have better chances for drought relief if the southern United States sees above-normal precipitation.
But where the heaviest rain and snow ultimately fall will depend on individual storms, and that’s something forecasters say they can’t reliably predict months in advance.
That’s part of the reason California is preparing now rather than waiting for the forecast to become clearer. El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter or a specific storm, state officials said, but it raises the risk of powerful storms. And with Pacific temperatures still climbing, forecasters aren’t yet ready to say this El Niño has reached its peak.
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