Children whose parents divorced before they turned six face steeper odds in life, according to a new paper based on U.S. Census data. The research, led by a team of economists, suggests that early childhood exposure to family separation increases the risk of several long-term challenges.
Those risks include financial instability, a greater chance of teenage pregnancy, incarceration and even premature death. While the study does not claim that divorce alone determines a child’s future, it highlights a statistically significant correlation between early family disruption and adverse life outcomes.
Divorce rates in the U.S.
The Census Bureau reports divorce rates over a 10 year period between 2012 and 2022 declined while the rate of marriage stayed steady. The U.S. marriage rate has stayed steady over the last decade —16.6 per 1,000 people in 2012 and just a slight bump to 16.7 in 2022, according to the American Community Survey.
The ACS isn’t as comprehensive as the decennial count of the American population, but does survey thousands of the country’s households and compile those responses with publicly available data such as divorce filings, death certificates and other metrics.
At the same time, divorce rates have dipped, going from 9.8 divorces per 1,000 people in 2012 down to 7.1 in 2022.
What does the study say?
Earlier this month, a team of economists from the University of California at Merced, the U.S. Census Bureau and the University of Maryland released new findings that shed light on how divorce reshapes more than just a family’s finances, it changes the entire structure of the household.
The data comes from a combination of federal tax records, the Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration, covering all children born in the U.S. between 1988 and 1993.
According to the data, in many divorce cases, separation leads to a sharp decline in household income, often cutting it in half. As a result, each parent typically relocates, frequently to lower-income neighborhoods. The economists said divorced parents often start other relationships, which leads to step parents entering the picture along with additional dependents.
Parents will then assume more hours at work, resulting in less care for each child.
Children whose parents divorce at age 5 or younger typically earn 9 to 13% less as adults compared to their peers from families who didn’t divorce. The drop in earnings is comparable to losing an entire year of education or spending one’s childhood in a significantly lower-quality neighborhood with less access to resources.
The researchers estimated about 15% of the overall differences in outcomes between children of always-married and never-married parents can be traced directly to changes in family structure.
The risks go beyond finances. The paper also studied teen pregnancy and the increase of child mortality. Children of early divorce faced a 60% higher chance of becoming teen parents, a 40% greater risk of incarceration and a 45% increased risk of early death.
Three key factors
The data points to three main factors that help explain the effects of divorce on children: reduced household resources, a decline in neighborhood quality and greater distance between parents and their children.
Economists found future earnings are closely tied to early family structure, finding about 44% of the income gap between children from divorced and intact families. Those earnings also accounted for up to 17% of the increased likelihood of teen pregnancy but less than 1% of the risk of future incarceration.
On the other hand, relocating to a different neighborhood after divorce played a larger role in certain outcomes. The data show that changes in neighborhood quality explained about 16% of income differences, 12% of teen pregnancy cases and nearly 30% of incarceration risk.
The study found a correlation tied to the physical distance between parents and children after a divorce. This increasing separation was linked to 15% of child mortality cases and 22% of teen pregnancies.
Additional research to examine children’s outcomes
While the study revealed clear patterns, economists noted some underlying factors remain hidden from census data. The paper states, “Observable mechanisms explain only 25 to 60 percent of divorce’s effects,” As a result, they emphasized the need for future research to explore mechanisms not captured in current data.
They also pointed out that some low-income families appear to bear the brunt of divorce-related impacts. Without targeted support, the study said these disadvantages risk being passed from one generation to the next. Addressing the needs of these families, they said, could help reduce the cycle.
Other studies share similar findings
In 2019, a study by World Psychiatry focused on the mental health of children following parental divorce or separation. According to the findings, more kids today face family instability from divorce, separation and nonmarital births. Researchers found this to be most common in Western countries. In the U.S., only about 60% of children live with married biological parents.
Research shows kids from divorced families are more likely to struggle in school, face behavior issues, experience teen pregnancy, poverty and incarceration. The main challenges come from lower income, moving to worse neighborhoods, family conflict, and less time with one parent, usually their father.