China and Russia are pushing into the Arctic. Will NATO shift focus too?

[Ryan Robertson]

WHEN IT COMES TO THE ACTIVITIES OF THE CHINESE AND RUSSIAN MILITARIES, YOUR INITIAL REACTION COULD BE TO AUTOMATICALLY TURN YOUR ATTENTION TO RUSSIA’S ILLEGAL INVASION OF UKRAINE, AND CHINA’S CONSISTANT BOUNDRY PUSHING IN THE INDO PACIFIC. AND WHILE WE’D FORGIVE YOU FOR DOING THAT,  LIMITING YOU FIELD OF VIEW TO THOSE REGIONS WOULD BE A MISTAKE. 

THAT’S BECAUSE BOTH COUNTRIES ARE INCREASINGLY INTENT ON DEVELOPING A PRESENCE IN THE ARTIC. SO MUCH SO THIS DEEPENING COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE WORLD’S SECOND- AND THIRD-LARGEST MILITARIES HAS THE FULL ATTENTION OF THOSE CHARGED WITH DEFENDING NORTH AMERICA’S NORTHERN TIER. AND THAT’S THE SUBJECT OF THIS WEEK’S DEBRIEF.

IN MID-SEPTEMBER OF LAST YEAR, RUSSIA AND CHINA LAUNCHED “OCEAN-24,” A LARGE-SCALE NAVAL AND AIR EXERCISE THAT SPANNED THE PACIFIC AND ARCTIC OCEANS. IT INVOLVED OVER 400 WARSHIPS, SUBMARINES, AND SUPPORT VESSELS WITH MORE THAN 120 AIRCRAFT AND 90,000 TROOPS.

AND OH YEAH, AROUND THE SAME TIME, NORAD TRACKED FOUR RUSSIAN MILITARY AIRCRAFT ENTERING ALASKA’S AIR DEFENSE IDENTIFICATION ZONE.

[Maj. Gen. Chris McKenna, Canadian NORAD Region Commander]

“This summer, we had the Alaska Region and myself countering the combined bomber patrol with the Chinese and the Russians conducting a bounce to Ranadier to take a run at the air defense identification zone for Alaska and Canada. And the US were shoulder to shoulder in that deterrent moment, and we were in position for that deterrent moment.”

[Ryan Robertson]

MAJOR GENERAL CHRIS MCKENNA, THE CANADIAN NORAD REGION COMMANDER, WAS PART OF A PANEL AT THIS YEAR’S AFA WARFARE SYMPOSIUM CALLED NORTHERN TIER DEFENSE, THAT ADDRESSED THE LOOMING THREAT OF RUSSIAN AND CHINESE INCURSIONS IN THE ARCTIC.

[Maj. Gen. Chris McKenna, Canadian NORAD Region Commander]

“Arctic security, in my view, is economic security, not just for Canada and the US, but for our Euro Atlantic partners, fundamentally economic security. So these are the threats, and this is the context that I sort of live and fight in.”

[Ryan Robertson]

IN 2018, CHINA DECLARED ITSELF A “NEAR-ARCTIC STATE” AS PART OF ITS STRATEGY TO GAIN INFLUENCE.  WE SHOULD NOTE THAT THIS TITLE IS SELF-PROCLAIMED AND NOT OFFICIALLY RECOGNIZED BY ARCTIC NATIONS OR INTERNATIONAL BODIES. NONETHELESS, CHINA’S NORTHWARD PUSH APPEARS TO BE PART OF A BROADER STRATEGY TO ASSERT DOMINANCE AT THE TOP OF THE WORLD

[Maj. Gen. Jonas Wikman, Chief of Staff of the Swedish Air Force]

“In my mind, I think my biggest concern is this, that we fail to recognize. Is the urge to speed up the pace, to get back on track when it comes to the Arctic, when it comes to invest, invest in our capability, in our capability to operate in Arctic as allied and partners, and fail to really assess the atmosphere in the Arctic. I think that’s the assessment part, and the operational part is, to me, the most important part right now for us.”

[Ryan Robertson]

FOR MAJOR GENERAL JONAS WIKMAN, CHIEF OF STAFF OF THE SWEDISH AIR FORCE, WHOSE COUNTRY IS ONE OF THE NEWEST MEMBERS OF NATO, THE TIMING OF THEIR INCLUSION IS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN DEFENDING THE NORTHERN TIER FROM RUSSIAN AND CHINESE INCURSIONS. 

[Maj. Gen. Jonas Wikman, Chief of Staff of the Swedish Air Force]

“We also add geography when it comes to to early warning. Early Warning capabilities. I mean, we cover from, I think, 55 to 69 degrees north. That’s, that’s kind of wide area for early warning. We bring in place geography when it comes to bases. We have air bases and we have space port north of the polar circle, and we know how to operate that.”

[Ryan Robertson]

AND IT’S THAT DIVERSITY OF DEFENSES, FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC, THAT POTENTIALLY GIVES THE U.S. AND ITS ALLIES AN EDGE IN THE ARCTIC. WHERE RUSSIA AND CHINA GENERALLY OPERATE FROM A SINGLE SYSTEM, THEY, IN TURN, WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAR MORE THAN THAT.

[Scott Gilloon, Sr. Dir. Mission Architecture, General Atomics, aeronautical systems]

“Now, imagine an adversary having to approach it from, Hey, what is Saab system do? What are the maybe, if there’s, what is it? What is it that this system is going to look like to my to my screen, to my, you know, to the sensing apparatus, they have to approach it from all of us. And I think that’s very, very powerful, not only in terms of kind of the way we generate information or process information, but also the way that we can then attack the problem, because you can’t just get to one of us without bypassing the others, right? And so I think that, again, that that, to me, seems like a great way to collaborate, and just something that you know, again, being the retired guy, love to see kind of that expansion of NATO, bringing Sweden and Finland to the mix.”

[Ryan Robertson]

IF ALL OF THIS SOUNDS NEW TO YOU, THERE’S A REASON FOR THAT. THE ARCTIC HASN’T BEEN A MAJOR FOCUS FOR U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING IN THE PAST. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE, EXCEPT FOR RUSSIA, MOST COUNTRIES WITH CLAIMS IN THE REGION WERE U.S. ALLIES. BEYOND THAT, CHINA ONLY STARTED DEVELOPING ITS ARCTIC STRATEGY IN THE LAST SIX YEARS. 

WHILE THERE’S NO DENYING THE GLOBAL POLITICS IN THE ARCTIC ARE SHIFTING, ESPECIALLY AS CLIMATE CHANGE IS MAKING THE WATERS EASIER TO NAVIGATE, IT MIGHT FEEL LIKE THE U.S. IS FALLING BEHIND IN ARCTIC POLICY, BUT THAT’S A PERCEPTION THAT COULD SOON BE CHANGING. ESPECIALLY AS, AT LEAST FOR NOW, NATO CONTINUES STRENGTHENING ITS DEFENSE PLANS IN THE REGION.