The U.S. and China opened another chapter in their ongoing trade dispute, marked by China’s response to recent economic threats made by President Donald Trump. It’s the latest development in a saga that has seen the world’s two most powerful countries repeatedly threaten, impose, negotiate and rein in their most dramatic impulses.
On Friday, Trump said that the U.S. would implement a 100% tariff on imports coming from China beginning Nov. 1. That’s in addition to the 30% tariff currently in place. Likewise, Trump added, the U.S. will impose export controls “on any and all critical software.”
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‘Textbook double standard’
That news didn’t sit well with China’s Ministry of Commerce. In translated remarks published to the ministry’s website Saturday, a spokesperson accused the Trump administration of engaging in a “textbook double standard.”
“For a long time, the U.S. has been overstretching the concept of national security, abusing export control, taking discriminatory actions against China, and imposing unilateral long-arm jurisdiction measures on various products including semiconductor equipment and chips,” the spokesperson said, citing a U.S. Commerce Control list that includes more than 3,000 items, as well as America’s de minimis rule on exports coming from other countries.
“These measures of U.S. side have seriously harmed the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of companies, severely disrupted the international economic and trade order, and gravely undermined the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains,” the spokesperson added.
Steven Durlauf, an economist and professor with the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, doesn’t think the tariffs to stick.
“I expect that the U.S. will back down from the 100% additional tariff threat,” Durlauf told Straight Arrow News. “Trump’s tariff policies are a sequence of threats, reversals, new threats, etc. Overall, the current tariff level is historically high, but not nearly as high as what was promised on ‘Liberation Day.’”
Trump-Xi meeting in doubt
The new wave of retaliatory accusations comes as Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were set to meet at the end of October in South Korea. Trump has since cast doubt on that meeting, posting to Truth Social earlier this week that there now “seems to be no reason” for it.
However, in a subsequent Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump attempted to tamp down the rhetoric, writing, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
The importance of rare earth minerals
Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs followed news that China would be implementing export controls on some of its rare earth minerals. Under new guidelines from Beijing, foreign companies are required to get special approval to export items with the elements, which can be found in everything from electronic goods to military equipment.
Those rare earth minerals have been a sticking point in the ongoing trade dispute between Beijing and Washington. According to The Associated Press, China mines nearly 70% of the world’s rare earth minerals and controls upwards of 90% of global processing.
“Willful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China. China’s position on the trade war is consistent: we do not want it, but we are not afraid of it,” the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said Saturday. “If the U.S. insists on going the wrong way, China will surely take resolute measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests.”
‘Delicate dance’
In an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that China’s dominant position in the rare earth mineral industry presents a national emergency.
“The president is committing to protecting America’s economic livelihoods but also making us more self-sufficient, and we’ve gotta do both of those things at the same time,” Vance said.
The vice president described the negotiations as a “delicate dance,” contingent upon China’s response.
“If they respond in a highly aggressive manner, I guarantee you the president of the United States has far more cards than the People’s Republic of China,” Vance said. “If, however, they’re willing to be reasonable, then Donald Trump is always willing to be a reasonable negotiator. We’re going to find out a lot in the weeks to come about whether China wants to start a trade war with us or whether they actually want to be reasonable. I hope they choose the path of reason. The president of the United States is going to defend America regardless.”
While Vance believes that the U.S. “has far more cards” than China, Durlauf –– who characterized Trump’s X posts and comments from the administration as “overwrought, emotional outbursts” –– thinks the strength of China’s economy protects it from outright capitulation.
“China, unlike other countries, is economically powerful enough that it does not need to bend the knee, and they of course know this,” Durlauf told SAN.
