The unseasonably warm water that helped Hurricane Melissa grow into a Category 5 storm before it made landfall in Jamaica is likely to remain, making historically strong storms like Melissa increasingly frequent, scientists warn. Melissa is the latest example of climate change’s ability to supercharge storms with heat and moisture, producing a record-breaking and powerful hurricane.
Melissa cut a path of destruction across Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas and was headed toward Bermuda on Thursday. Dozens of people were killed amid widespread flooding and property damage.
Scientists say the way Melissa became one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic may become more common.
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Melissa’s rapid intensification and warming waters
Just days before its initial landfall in Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa underwent a rapid transformation. Just three days after forming into a tropical storm, it developed into a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour.
Scientists said the rapid intensification was aided by waters 2.5 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. The temperatures, according to a Climate Central report, “were made up to 700 times more likely because of human-caused climate change.”
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In terms of strength and pressure, Hurricane Melissa was one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean.
Climatologists note that, since 1970, the oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat created by greenhouse gas emissions. That’s because ocean water retains heat at a much higher rate than the atmosphere.
As waters warm, strong hurricanes will become more common
According to The Weather Channel, for every tenth of a degree the ocean warms, the greater the likelihood of stronger storms and rising sea levels. Scientists warn that, as the oceans warm, stronger hurricanes are likely to follow.
They also say that rising sea levels will produce bigger storm surges — the abnormal rise of water produced by a storm’s winds. Storm surge is the leading cause of hurricane-related deaths, according to the National Weather Service.
At the same time, scientists say, the warming atmosphere means heavier rainfall from the storms. In recent years, hurricanes have been producing increasing amounts of rain, often measured in feet rather than inches, according to researchers at Florida International University.
“It’s estimated that tropical systems’ rainfall rates are increasing by 1% per year due to climate change,” wrote Jennifer Gray, a climate journalist for The Weather Channel. “This is not only resulting in more inland flooding, but hurricanes are maintaining their structure longer over land, which is compounding damage and threats.”
Despite this, scientists note that climate change is not likely to increase the number of hurricanes per year, but it will make those storms more intense.
