The Republican majority in the U.S. House continues to shrink as the midterm cycle approaches.
Democrat Christian Menefee won a special election runoff Saturday in Texas’s 18th Congressional District, a seat opened last year following the death of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner.
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Democrat win narrows GOP House majority
Once Menefee is sworn in, Republicans – and Speaker Mike Johnson – will hold a razor-thin 218-214 majority, with three additional special elections pending in Georgia, New Jersey and California.
Menefee will serve out the remainder of Turner’s term through 2026, but only briefly before facing voters again.
Redistricting reshapes the race
Under a redistricting plan pushed by President Donald Trump, Menefee’s district has been redrawn, forcing him into a March 3 primary against fellow Democrats Amanda Edwards – whom he just defeated – and longtime Houston-area Rep. Al Green.
The district, centered in Harris County and the Houston area, has long been a Democratic stronghold with large African American and Latino populations.
Major upset in Texas State Senate race
Elsewhere in Texas, Democrats are pointing to a surprise win that’s drawing national attention.
In Texas Senate District 9, union leader and Air Force veteran Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by roughly 14 points – in a district Trump won by 17 points just two years ago.
Voting in the district was also affected by severe weather. Elections officials in Tarrant County closed all early voting locations in Senate District 9 on Sunday, Jan. 25, due to below-freezing temperatures. Polling sites reopened Monday, but with a delayed start.
Rehmet, a machinist at Lockheed Martin who became a Democrat while working in a factory in his 20s, ran a campaign focused on cost-of-living pressures, public education and working-class issues.
Democrats are hailing the result as a potential bellwether.
A broader Democratic strategy?
The New York Times reports Rehmet’s relaxed style and moderate tone may reflect a broader Democratic push toward candidates who avoid culture-war flashpoints. Rehmet has said he deliberately sidestepped divisive social issues, calling his effort a “people-powered campaign.”
Democratic consultants told the Times they believe candidates who emphasize economic and affordability concerns are resonating more with white working-class voters.
The trend isn’t limited to Texas. In Maine, Democrat Graham Platner – a military veteran and oyster farmer – is mounting a primary challenge against Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, as Republican Sen. Susan Collins seeks reelection.
“People are just demanding it,” said Democratic strategist Michael Kolenc, who works with candidates across Texas. “They are genuine guys worried about pocketbooks, worried about everyone in their community. It comes out of frustration.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee echoed that view, while national Republicans remain skeptical. Christian Martine, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told the Times Democrats are still pushing what he called “the same radical socialist agenda that we’ve seen take hold from New York to California.“
Still, Republican leaders in Texas are taking notice.
Lt. Governor Dan Patrick called Rehmet’s win a “wake-up call for Republicans across Texas,” in a post on X. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned on X, “A swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.”
