Forecasters warned in May that a developing El Niño could become unusually strong. Three months later, that call is holding up.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere’s fall and winter. The agency also places the odds of a historic October-to-December event at 69%, putting this El Niño within reach of the strongest on record.
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“The forecast seems to be playing out,” National Weather Service meteorologist Jared Maples told Straight Arrow. “If anything, the intensity is not a surprise necessarily. We kind of knew the chances there, but just how fast it’s come on and how strong it’s come on is kind of an eye-opener.”
Forecast signals align
The forecast has strengthened steadily since summer. In July, meteorologists were already watching the possibility of a “super” or “mega” El Niño as unusually warm waters spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. By early August, NOAA put the odds of El Niño lasting into early spring 2027 at 97% and the odds of a very strong fall event at 81%. Its Aug. 13 update pushed that confidence above 90% for fall and winter.
The atmosphere is also responding in ways associated with El Niño. Increased wind shear has helped limit Atlantic tropical storm development, while the Pacific has been more active. NOAA’s updated 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, issued Aug. 6, continued to hint at a below-normal season.
Maples said forecasters still cannot predict individual storm tracks or cold fronts months in advance, but the broader pattern has been visible for months. This includes a strengthening El Niño, an active Pacific, a quieter Atlantic and a southern storm track that becomes more important heading into winter.
Fall outlook: warm, but uneven
For fall, El Niño tilts the odds but does not guarantee the same outcome everywhere. NOAA’s late-August outlook favored warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country from September through November. Parts of the central Mississippi and Ohio valleys had equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures.
Rain and snow predictions were more mixed, with wetter odds in parts of the Southwest and Southeast and drier odds in parts of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest. As fall progresses, forecasters will watch whether the southern jet stream becomes more active and sends heavier rain events across the southern United States.
Winter outlook: mild does not mean quiet
Maples said one common misconception is that El Niño automatically means a mild, rainy winter with no meaningful cold. Seasonal outlooks can lean warm overall and still include sharp cold snaps, especially if Arctic air pushes south.
The larger winter concern is whether cold air overlaps with moisture from an energized southern jet stream. If it does, storms could bring heavy rain to the South, ice in transition zones and snow on the colder northern edge. Maples said that risk may grow later in the season, especially from January into February.
“While the indication is that you may end up above normal in the temperatures for the most part, it doesn’t tell the whole story,” Maples said. “You’re going to still get cold fronts. You’ll get these cold snaps, but they just won’t last as long.”
Southern storm track is key
The southern United States remains the clearest area to watch for above-normal precipitation, a classic El Niño signal that can bring repeated rain events and raise flooding concerns. The West, including California, the Southwest and parts of the Rockies, could also benefit from a more active Pacific storm track, though individual storm paths will determine where rain and snow fall.
In the Rockies, a Pacific moisture connection could raise snowfall potential if storms dig into the West and move inland. Farther north, lake-effect snow could become more important if warm Great Lakes waters meet outbreaks of colder air.
The impacts could extend beyond weather. A strong El Niño can affect crops, utilities, insurance costs and tourism-dependent communities through flooding, drought, storm damage and shifts in energy demand.
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