The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins next Saturday, June 1. Forecasters warned it could be an especially active one in 2025.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual outlook on Thursday, May 23, where it predicted an above-normal season. Meteorologist Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said NOAA expects 13 to 19 storms compared to the seasonal average of 14.
Of those, six to 10 could become hurricanes, and three to five may reach Category 3 strength or higher, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. These would be considered major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Last year, NOAA data showed 18 total storms, including 11 that qualified as hurricanes, five of which were Category 3 or greater. Those storms caused more than $100 billion worth of damage, with Helene and Milton hitting just weeks apart during the fall 2024 presidential campaign. Helene made landfall in North Carolina and Florida in late September. Massive rainfall led to disastrous flooding, and more than 230 people died.
Milton hit a few weeks later in early October, pummeling Tampa, Florida, and farther south down the Gulf Coast to places such as Bradenton and Sarasota. There was widespread flooding and power outages that affected millions of customers.
What are the major causes of the upcoming storm season?
Forecasters don’t predict specific landfalls this far in advance, but warmer ocean temperatures are fueling the outlook. Graham said the above-average forecast is the driving force behind this year’s predictions.
“The warmer ocean temperature is really consistent with us being more active this season,” Graham said.
Hurricane season comes at a time when the National Weather Service has been hit by staffing cuts. NBC News reported that nearly 600 workers have left since the beginning of 2025. However, Laura Grimm, acting administrator of NOAA, stated, “We are fully staffed at the hurricane center and we definitely are ready to go.
“We are really making this a top priority for this administration,” Grimm said.
Hurricane Katrina anniversary approaches
NOAA held its news conference on Thursday, May 22, in Gretna, Louisiana. Managers said they chose the location because this coming August marks the 20th anniversary of deadly Hurricane Katrina, which slammed New Orleans and left the city underwater.
NOAA said technology has improved since then, with five-day storm tracks now as accurate as the three-day outlook was in 2005. The agency said it is working on improving rapid intensification forecasting this season by using a key hurricane model to get an estimate of the damage by hurricanes that are destined to make landfall.
