Former Google CEO predicts AI will replace most programmers in a year


Summary

AI evolution predictions

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, anticipates rapid AI evolution, predicting that autonomous agents will replace most programmers within a year and achieve superintelligent capabilities within six years.

Rising AGI development

Schmidt believes artificial general intelligence (AGI) capable of outperforming humans in various intellectual tasks may be just 3-5 years away, dramatically reshaping human industries and societies.

Societal shifts and warnings

Schmidt warns that as AI gains independence, it could operate beyond human control, signaling major societal changes. He argues that current perceptions of AI might be underhyped, suggesting that its impact is just beginning.


This recording was made using enhanced software.

Summary

AI evolution predictions

Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, anticipates rapid AI evolution, predicting that autonomous agents will replace most programmers within a year and achieve superintelligent capabilities within six years.

Rising AGI development

Schmidt believes artificial general intelligence (AGI) capable of outperforming humans in various intellectual tasks may be just 3-5 years away, dramatically reshaping human industries and societies.

Societal shifts and warnings

Schmidt warns that as AI gains independence, it could operate beyond human control, signaling major societal changes. He argues that current perceptions of AI might be underhyped, suggesting that its impact is just beginning.


Full story

Next year, your newest colleague at work might not be a human but a fully autonomous AI agent. That’s the bold prediction coming from former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who spoke at the AI + Biotechnology Summit in Washington, D.C., on April 10.

Schmidt’s AI road-map

The tech mogul believes AI’s next big leap is its ability to plan, which will push the technology into what he calls “superintelligence territory.” That’s the point where AI begins to surpass human intelligence in reasoning, problem-solving and creativity. He predicts we’re just six years away from reaching that level.

But we won’t have to wait that long to see massive changes. Schmidt says AI will look radically different in just one year.

“We believe, as an industry, that in one year, the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers,” he asserted.

These AI systems, Schmidt explained, already operate by “following the tree of choices,” much like humans do — trying one solution, then another, and another, until they solve the problem.

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“By the way, that’s how we think,” Schmidt added.

Axios reports that the top security executive at Anthropic, the company behind the family of large language models called Claude, supports Schmidt’s vision. The executive predicts virtual employees will be embedded in corporate networks by next year.

A brilliant mind at everyone’s fingertips

According to Schmidt, right now, just about every company calls itself an “AI company.” He says people are increasingly using large language models like ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and xAI’s Grok. He says people are using them for work tasks, personal advice as well as relationship and psychological help. But to Schmidt, that’s already old news.

What’s coming next is artificial general intelligence (AGI) — AI that can perform any intellectual task a human can. Schmidt thinks we’re only three to five years away from this kind of system. He describes it as “the smartest mathematician, physicist, artist, writer, thinker, politician…”

Achieving AGI would place a brilliant mind at everyone’s fingertips, capable of advanced design, contract negotiation or policy drafting.

He jokingly calls this vision the “San Francisco Consensus,” saying that most people who believe in it live and work there. Still, he suggests that if these AI agents truly become the best at what they do, they’ll revolutionize every system they touch across business, government and academia. “This foundation is being locked in,” he said.

Will AI stop listening to us?

And once machines master planning, Schmidt warns, they may no longer feel the need to listen to their human creators. “People do not understand what happens when you have intelligence at this level, which is largely free.”

So if it feels like AI is everywhere — something you’re reading about, hearing about and using in your daily life — Schmidt says that’s not the peak. It’s just the beginning. “In my overall view,” he said, “AI is underhyped, not overhyped.”

Jeremy Fader (Producer) and Jake Larsen (Video Editor) contributed to this report.
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Why this story matters

This story highlights the imminent advancements in AI technology and their potential impact on various sectors and society as a whole.

Advancements in AI

The rapid development of AI indicates transformative changes in industries, affecting both job markets and the way work is conducted.

Artificial General Intelligence

The progression towards artificial general intelligence (AGI) raises critical questions about the capabilities and autonomy of AI systems, which could revolutionize problem-solving at an unprecedented scale.

Ethical considerations

As AI approaches higher levels of intelligence, ethical dilemmas regarding control, accountability and safety become central to discussions on technology's integration into daily life.