Rescue crews are still working to find survivors and recover bodies after a catastrophic glacier collapse triggered devastating flooding in Nepal and Tibet last week.
In the aftermath, scientists are working to determine exactly how the disaster unfolded, drawing attention to glacier melt and where millions elsewhere in the world share the same risk.
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The threat of glacial lakes
There are more than 200,000 glaciers worldwide, covering roughly 700,000 to 726,000 square kilometers globally, according to the World Meteorological Society. And thanks to gravity, those glaciers are constantly moving, leaving deep glacial beds behind.
Fear No Fact.
Since 1990, the number, area, and volume of glacial lakes globally have grown rapidly, increasing by 53%, 51%, and 48%, respectively.
It’s in those beds that glacial lakes form. As glaciers melt due to a changing climate, the lakes fill with glacier water and often mountain runoff.
According to a 2023 study from Nature Communications, the number and size of glacial lakes have grown rapidly since 1990. At the same time, populations in areas downstream from these lakes have grown, putting even more people at risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
These floods can happen for a variety of reasons, including dam breaches and lake overfilling. When this occurs, water from glacial lakes can rapidly run downhill, flooding areas downstream, like those in Nepal saw last week.
“GLOFs can be highly destructive and can arrive with little prior warning, causing significant damage to property, infrastructure, and agricultural land, and resulting in extensive loss of life,” the study says.
And with a warming climate and melting glaciers, researchers say glacial lakes are becoming a “globally important natural hazard that requires urgent attention.”
Where are the highest risks?
The study examined which areas were most vulnerable to glacial lake floods as of 2020. It found 15 million people live within potential GLOF impact zones, and of those, 9.3 million are in High Mountain Asia — where last week’s catastrophe took place. India and Pakistan had the largest exposed populations.
It’s not just High Mountain Asia at risk. The study also found the Andes have similar potential for glacial floods, but much less research exists in the area.
“Between 1990 and 2015, Iceland, the North American Cordillera and Hindu-Kush-Karakoram were the most prominent GLOF research hotspots,” the study says. Since then, the Himalayas have been the most prominent research focus.
Researchers also highlighted a major gap in scientific attention. The Andes have potential for significant GLOF impacts, but the region has received far less research than High Mountain Asia, making the Andes an important area for future monitoring and study.
But that doesn’t mean GLOFs can’t occur in the U.S. and North America. In fact, they already have. Newsweek reports North America has experienced glacier-related floods for more than a century, specifically in Alaska and western Canada.
However, this flooding poses less of a threat because those glaciers tend to be in remote areas with low populations. One of the highest-risk North American areas, however, is in Alaska — Juneau, specifically.
The area regularly sees flooding from its Suicide Basin, which has produced releases every year since 2011. Those releases regularly affect homes, roads and infrastructure, but because they occur so often, communities have learned to prepare for and respond to the threat.
What can be done?
Juneau has adopted systems to alert the area when a release is possible, including flood warnings and evacuation orders. There’s also been increased research and monitoring of the basin, attached lakes and rivers, and the glacier that feeds the basin.
That’s not always a possibility, though. Because Juneau is a well-developed, easily accessible area, there are plenty of opportunities for monitoring.
But as NPR found in a 2022 report, many dangerous glacial lakes among the fastest-growing are located deep in the mountains. The areas are so remote that scientists haven’t even identified all potentially dangerous lakes, and many they’ve found aren’t easily accessible.
Satellite technology has aided in research, but there’s still much to be done.
Implementing evacuation plans and drills, along with early warning systems, could also reduce casualties in future catastrophes. And at times, engineering interventions can control drainage or lower lake levels, reducing the risk of flooding.
As it stands, science and research focus less on preventing the lakes from forming and more on maintaining them and preventing overflows and dam collapses.
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