Iran has sent a barrage of missiles and drones flying through the Middle East skies this week. How much longer can it keep this offensive up?
That question of Iran’s ability to keep responding under U.S.-Israeli strikes, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, may determine how much pressure it can put on shipping through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Alma Research and Education Center, citing IDF assessments, estimated Iran’s ballistic-missile arsenal at about 2,500 by February 2026 and said Iran had worked to rebuild after the June 2025 “12-day war,” reportedly producing dozens of missiles each month. Israel said its strikes destroyed hundreds more. Alma noted it’s unclear whether the estimate reflects Iran’s full inventory or only missiles assessed as capable of threatening Israel.
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What will determine Iran’s staying power
A central question is how much launch capacity Iran can still produce and how much of it can survive continued strikes. Al Jazeera reported that Iran has built underground storage tunnels and protected launch sites, sometimes described as “missile cities,” that could make it harder to quickly shut down missile launches.
Missiles: estimates, launchers and range limits
Ballistic missiles remain a core part of Iran’s long-range strike capability, and public estimates of Iran’s ballistic-missile stockpile vary by source and by timeframe. Iran Program Senior Director at Foundation for Defense Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, told ITV News that Iran’s arsenal includes rockets, drones and cruise missiles. He described ballistic missiles as Iran’s most important long-range strike tool.
One widely cited data point comes from before the June 2025 war. ITV News cited a 2022 statement by then-U.S. Central Command commander Gen. Kenneth McKenzie that Iran had more than 3,000 ballistic missiles. He noted that many were used or destroyed during the June 2025 fighting.
Iran Watch’s Jan. 26, 2026, missile background report also cited McKenzie’s “over 3,000” remark. The report said Israeli officials estimated Iran had about 1,500 missiles and about 200 launchers at the end of the June 2025 war. It also said there were signs by late 2025 that Iran was working to rebuild stocks.
On missile range, according to Reuters, Iran maintains a self-imposed 1,240-mile ballistic missile range and said it found no evidence supporting claims that Iran’s missiles could soon reach the U.S. homeland. However, a 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency assessment said Iran’s space launch vehicles could eventually support development of an intercontinental ballistic missile, potentially by 2035 if the government chose to move in that direction.
Drones and sea pressure
Al Jazeera reported that Iran’s underground “missile cities” could make launches harder to stop quickly, raising the risk of a prolonged exchange.
Israeli officials have not estimated Iran’s drone arsenal and say Iran likely has more drones than missiles. Bloomberg also reported Iran claims a Shahed-149 variant can fly as far as 2,480 miles and carry up to 1,100 pounds of munitions. Drones can be launched in repeated waves at lower cost than missiles, a tactic meant to keep air defenses under sustained pressure.
At sea, Iran has historically threatened shipping with mines, anti-ship missiles, small submarines and fast-attack craft in and around the Strait of Hormuz. On the size of Iran’s naval forces, SlashGear said Iran has two naval branches — the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy — and estimated the IRIN has more than 100 vessels and about 18,500 personnel, while the IRGC Navy operates around 45 or more smaller vessels.
But Operation Epic Fury has made Iranian naval forces a priority target, according to Pentagon officials and CENTCOM, with widespread strikes on naval bases and vessels and CENTCOM claiming Iran went from 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman to none within two days — leaving uncertainty about how much capability remains at sea.
