How special House elections in Florida could send waves through US politics

• Two special elections in Florida on Tuesday could affect the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold a 218-213 majority.
• Both special elections are in districts that Republican lawmakers vacated and where Republicans outnumber Democrats by a 2-1 margin.
• Democrats spent large amounts of money to try to flip the seats, and that financial advantage has some Republicans worried about Tuesday’s outcome.

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Some analysts are calling two special elections in Florida on Tuesday, April 1, a big test for President Donald Trump and his agenda.

Republicans vacated both seats, and the results could significantly impact the balance of power in the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a 218-213 majority.

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The 1st Congressional District

In the 1st Congressional District, located in the Florida panhandle, Republican Jimmy Patronis, a Trump-backed candidate, is running against Democrat Gay Valimont. The seat was previously held by Republican Matt Gaetz, who resigned from the House in January after Trump nominated him to become attorney general.

Gaetz bowed out amid the release of a House Ethics investigation against him. The congressional seat is now up for grabs.

Patronis is Florida’s chief financial officer, while Valimont is a gun control activist. Patronis has expressed concern that Valimont has raised nearly $6.5 million since early January, compared to his $1.1 million. It’s a district where Trump won by 37 points in November 2024 and where Valimont previously lost to Gaetz.

The 6th Congressional District

In the 6th District near Daytona Beach, there is also a battle for the seat vacated by Mike Waltz, now the Trump administration’s national security adviser.

Republican state Sen. Randy Fine is trying to hold the seat for Republicans, which Donald Trump won by 30 points in November 2024. He’s up against Democratic challenger Joshua Weil. Weil is a teacher who has made Trump’s vow to “dismantle” the Department of Education, as well as threats to Medicaid and Medicare, central themes of his campaign.

Fine supports Trump and is running on an “America First” agenda of secure borders and lower taxes.

What about fundraising?

In the most recent fundraising period, Weil raised $9.7 million, compared to Fine’s $561,000, plus $600,000 of his own money. The wide funding disparity is giving Republicans cause for concern in the district.

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The Wall Street Journal reports that internal Fine campaign polling showed Weil closing, with the race “uncomfortably tight.”

What is the political makeup of the districts?

According to state voter data, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 2-to-1 in both districts. However, reports indicate Democrats have been running slightly ahead in early voting.