Five weeks into the war, U.S. intelligence and outside reporting suggest Iran still retains major military capacity even as it prepares for the possibility of a ground fight.
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments reported on by CNN says roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact and that thousands of one-way attack drones remain.
Separately, The Wall Street Journal reports that Tehran is reinforcing defenses at key sites like Kharg Island, threatening broader attacks across the Gulf and launching a mass recruitment drive as more U.S. forces move into the region.
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That assessment contrasts with the more confident public statements from President Donald Trump and other administration officials. Trump said this week that Iran’s missile and drone capability had been “dramatically curtailed” and that “very few” launchers were left.
“Now in our 5th week of the campaign, it is my operational assessment that we are making undeniable progress,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, offering a similarly upbeat assessment.
Intelligence gaps
The difference between public messaging and intelligence reporting matters because Iran still appears capable of threatening U.S. forces, regional partners and commercial shipping. One source familiar with the intelligence told CNN that Iran remains “very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region.”
The Journal reports Iran is preparing not only to absorb further strikes but to widen the conflict if needed. Officials say Tehran has warned it could target offshore oil platforms and vital infrastructure — including power plants and desalination facilities — if its territory is invaded.
“Iran intends to make any U.S. landing as costly and politically unsustainable as possible,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
The risk is especially acute around the Strait of Hormuz, where CNN reports a large share of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles remains intact, preserving its ability to threaten shipping lanes.
What officials say versus what intelligence shows
U.S. Central Command says more than 12,300 targets have been struck inside Iran, and that the country’s military capabilities have been downgraded.
Administration officials have strongly disputed reporting that Iran retains significant strength. A White House spokesperson said Iranian attacks are down sharply and described the country’s military as increasingly weakened. A Pentagon spokesperson called CNN’s reporting “completely wrong” and said U.S. strikes have dealt a “crippling” blow.
At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported Iran is reinforcing Kharg Island with additional guided-missile systems, coastal mines, and fortified positions. It is also expanding recruitment efforts, including drawing volunteers for support roles, including those as young as 12.
Iran is hardening for a ground fight
Taken together, the reporting suggests Iran is adapting rather than collapsing. Missile launchers remain difficult to eliminate because many are hidden in tunnels or moved quickly between strikes.
Military analysts say Iran is preparing for a prolonged fight, drawing on tactics from its war with Iraq — including mobilizing civilians and relying on terrain, tunnels, drones and naval forces.
Some analysts warn the cost of a ground invasion could be significant. Estimates suggest the U.S. would need a large troop presence to secure key areas, raising the stakes of an escalation.
No clear end in site
Trump has said the conflict could end within weeks. But some officials familiar with the intelligence assessments told CNN that timeline is unlikely.
The next phase of the war may depend on whether fighting remains focused on airstrikes or shifts toward ground operations — a move that could significantly widen the conflict.
