The Islamic State is staging a resurgence in parts of Syria and Iraq, with fighters regrouping in cities and testing weakened defenses. New reports and military assessments point to rising ISIS activity amid a shrinking U.S. presence.
Attacks by the Islamic State declined overall after the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, but observers warn that ISIS may now be seeking to reactivate some cells after a series of planned attacks were thwarted by security officials.
ISIS fighters have also moved weapons and personnel from desert hideouts into urban areas like Deir al-Zor, Hasakah and Kirkuk, where they’ve launched attacks on power lines, oil facilities and other vulnerable infrastructure.
The Institute for the Study of War says ISIS is exploiting reduced U.S. and coalition patrols in eastern Syria, which have allowed sleeper cells to reestablish footholds in key transit corridors.
What has changed in the U.S. military posture?
American troop levels in Syria have declined over the past year, with many counterterrorism missions now delegated to Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. U.S. officials say operations continue to target ISIS leadership when actionable intelligence is available, but routine patrols and air support have been scaled back.
In Iraq, where a U.S. advisory mission remains in place, officials say the Iraqi Security Forces are primarily responsible for anti-ISIS efforts. However, limited coordination with American forces persists, particularly in areas requiring intelligence sharing and air support.
How many ISIS fighters remain in the region?
The United Nations estimates that ISIS has between 1,500 and 3,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, according to Reuters. They include remnants of the group’s former caliphate, as well as new recruits – some drawn from camps like al-Hol, which houses tens of thousands of displaced people, including families of former ISIS members.
U.S. Central Command says recent strikes have killed several mid-level ISIS planners. But officials acknowledge the group remains capable of launching regional attacks and recruiting online.
What are the broader security implications?
Analysts warn that ISIS’s resurgence, while still limited in scale, could disrupt regional stability if left unchecked. They point to the group’s ability to exploit governance gaps and economic hardship in conflict zones.
In Syria, ongoing instability and limited government control in the northeast make parts of the country vulnerable to militant activity. In Iraq, sectarian tensions and weak local security forces continue to hinder counterinsurgency efforts.
While there is no indication that ISIS can reestablish a caliphate, U.S. and regional officials say a sustained low-level insurgency could continue for years without increased pressure.
