President Donald Trump is facing a crucial decision: directly help Israel defeat the Iranian regime or don’t. If the president decides on the former, one of the options on the table is deploying the United States’ largest conventional weapon, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, also known as an MOP or GBU-57.
After just five days of fighting, Israel’s air force, with the assistance of Mossad agents operating on the ground in Iran, was able to take out dozens of senior military officers and nuclear scientists. Much of the success of those early strikes was possible because Israel also took out almost all of Iran’s air defense systems in the western part of the country.
Israel is battle-hardened after fighting Iranian proxies
“Those are capacities that already have been demonstrated,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and hostage negotiator, said. He’s now an author and the founder of Inside the Middle East.
“Starting from the targeted assassination of individuals and ending up with pinpoint advanced capacities of targeting infrastructure targets. Strategic targets. All based upon very, very accurate intelligence. Actually, in that regard, we shouldn’t be surprised because we saw that already before.”
In an interview with Straight Arrow News, Melamed said Israel’s ability to infiltrate the enemy’s ranks and deal decisive blows to enemy infrastructure has been on full display since the Oct. 7 attacks, which sparked the current fighting in the region.
Whether it was the beeper attack on Hezbollah, the commando raid on an underground Syrian weapons manufacturing plant, or the targeted assassinations of Iran’s top military brass, Melamed said Israel is showing its commitment to ending the Iranian Axis of Resistance.
“So basically, I think that what we see is in a way more of the same, but obviously the major and crucial element here is the fact that we are looking at an arena that is 1,500 kilometers away from Israel,” Melamed said. “And you are looking at a state, an enormously big state, Iran, which is about 60 times the size of Israel. So, of course, from that perspective, this is very impressive.”
Why does Israel need the US to strike Fordo?
Fighting Iran directly will be different than fighting its proxies, though. The distance means boots on the ground isn’t necessarily an ideal situation for Israel, so it will likely keep relying on its air force. But if Israel really wants the ultimate prize of its military campaign against Iran, the Fordo nuclear facility, it will need U.S. assistance.
The Massive Ordnance Penetrator is purpose-built for the job. It weighs 30,000 pounds and is specifically designed to take out Iran and North Korea’s underground nuclear facilities. Because it’s so big, the only way to get it in the air is to put it in the belly of a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, and the Fordo facility is deep enough underground that it would require multiple MOPs dropped on the same spot to take out the structure. Israel has neither the bombs nor the planes to carry them.
The United States deployed several B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, which is absolutely within striking distance of Tehran, but those bombers were replaced with B-52s in May. However, Trump did post on Truth Social that “everyone should leave Tehran.”
Obviously, it isn’t clear if the president will give the order to strike Iran. If he did, that would be getting the U.S. involved in the type of war he campaigned on ending.
Melamed thinks it may not need to come to that.
Does diplomacy still have a chance?
“The most significant thing that I think Israel expects from Trump at this moment, [is for] the Iranians to understand that Trump is 100% aligned with Israel,” Melamed said. “In other words, Trump basically says to the Iranians, ‘You were given the opportunity to avoid that. You did not take advantage of the opportunity. You played the game. Now you’re paying the price.’”
There are reports Iran is ready to come to the negotiating table, but Israel might not be just yet. Melamed said the Netanyahu administration, with the support of most Israelis, is taking advantage of the moment to end a decades-long threat to the state of Israel, and won’t stop until it is convinced Iran’s nuclear ambitions are destroyed.
“At this point, I think that the two sides are in different points regarding the exit strategy and the exit location,” Melamed said. “I don’t know how long is it going to last. The major component in the end of the day is the president of the United States. And if President Trump at some point will say, ‘Now the time is good for resuming the conversation,’ I guess that will be the time we’ll see the exit.”
