The prime minister of Japan announced Sunday that he will step down from his role two years before the end of his term, following growing tensions within his own party and two significant electoral defeats. Shigeru Ishiba, who held his position for less than a year, led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a dominant force in Japanese politics for the past seven decades.
US trade paves the way for resignation
Calls for Ishiba’s resignation had been growing for months, and a party vote to potentially force him out was expected on Monday. However, the 68-year-old career politician was hesitant to step down while his government negotiated a trade deal with the United States.
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On Friday, that deal materialized when U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on some Japanese products, including its valuable automotive sector, would be lowered from roughly 25% to 15%.
“Now that a conclusion has been reached in the negotiations concerning the U.S. tariff measures, I believe this is precisely the appropriate time,” Ishiba said while announcing his resignation. “I have strongly believed that negotiations concerning the U.S. tariff measures, which could be described as a national crisis, must be brought to a conclusion under our administration’s responsibility.”
Japan’s political instability
While Trump’s tariff announcement was enough to end Ishiba’s tenure, the country still finds itself in a difficult domestic position, said Ellis Krauss, professor emeritus of Japanese politics and policymaking at UC San Diego.
“This is a dangerous time for Japan to have these kinds of domestic political problems,” Krauss told Straight Arrow News. “Caught between China, upon whom it is economically dependent, and the U.S., upon whom its security depends, Japan needs stable domestic politics and leadership, both of which are now lacking.”
Given the pervasive instability of Japan’s domestic politics, some of the country’s electorate favored Ishiba’s time in office. He was the 10th prime minister to lead the party in just 25 years, highlighting Japan’s volatile political ecosystem and a general weariness among the public.
After a significant defeat in the July parliamentary elections, a hashtag calling for Ishiba to stay the course spread on social media.
“We have switched prime ministers many times,” Tokyo resident Yuri Okubo told France 24. “I’m worried that no matter who the new prime minister will be, nothing will change.”
A series of eight polls conducted in the wake of July’s parliamentary defeat also found increased support for Ishiba, although it remained marginal. His approval rating hovered between 35% and 40%. One of those polls also found that just 32% of voters believe Ishiba should step down.
But that support wasn’t enough to quell concerns among Ishiba’s LDP colleagues. The party’s ruling coalition lost its majority in two elections over the past 12 months, including the upper house in October and the lower house in July.
The October election proved to be the LDP’s most crushing defeat in 15 years. But according to Krauss, it was Japan’s House of Councillors election in July that spelled Ishiba’s end.
“The LDP lost three elections in a row, including for the first time in its history, both Houses of the Diet (Parliament),” Krauss told SAN. “With the narrow loss of the House of Councillors election last month, the handwriting was on the wall for Ishiba to resign. He hung on and part of the LDP supporters backed him up, but they were a minority of the electorate; when it became clear that he had lost the support of most of the party, he decided to go.”
Ishiba said as much on Sunday. “While striving to accommodate many people and foster harmony, my sincere efforts resulted in losing my particular path,” he said.
LDP’s waning support
The LDP, a dominant force in Japanese governance since 1955, has been losing broader support in recent years, typified by its recent election losses. Ishiba was criticized for only appointing two women to leadership roles within his ranks. There was also a corruption scandal and expensive gifts doled out to party members.
At the same time, Japan’s economy –– the fourth largest in the world –– is struggling. The cost of living has been going up, including the price of rice, which doubled over the past year.
“The LDP is in its worst shape in almost two decades but the opposition parties are fractious among themselves,” Krauss said. “Most likely, the LDP will cling to power with a new leader. Many voters are dissatisfied with high food prices and over-tourism, as well as the lack of a dynamic LDP leader, so the LDP has lost ground to smaller opposition parties promising tax cuts and who have more forthright leaders.”
Krauss added that there’s a “chance” the LDP could eventually split, but that he doesn’t expect it to happen just yet. “More likely,” Krauss said, “they will hang on for at least another few years under a new leader and possibly by taking another smaller conservative party into coalition.”
Who could succeed Ishiba?
Ishiba will stay in his role until at least October, when an election is expected to take place, paving the way for his successor. But according to Krauss, there is no clear frontrunner in the race to replace him.
“It is not clear who will take over the LDP,” Krauss said. “There are three or four obvious candidates, but each has his or her limitations.”
One possibility is Sanae Takaichi, regarded as a hardline nationalist, who notched second place in a previous leadership election and was named the most “fitting” successor to take Ishiba’s place in an August poll. However, Krauss said that Takaichi could be seen as “too conservative.”
Another option would be Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Krauss said that the younger Koizumi “lacks experience,” but that “youth and his name are his major advantages.”
Incidentally, that same August poll found that 52% of respondents believe a leadership contest is not necessary.
