Labor Day gas prices expected to fall to lowest level since 2020


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Summary

Prediction

GasBuddy predicts that gas prices will fall to the lowest level since 2020, when they were $2.22 per gallon.

How low?

While not as low as in 2020, gas prices nationwide on Labor Day weekend are expected to average $3.15 per gallon.

Why?

Analysts said the dip in prices is due to a shift to winter-blend gas and decreased demand as summer winds down.


Full story

Labor Day weekend gas prices are predicted to be the lowest since 2020, according to an analysis on Tuesday by GasBuddy. The average price of gasoline is expected to dip to $3.15 per gallon. 

Analysts said these will be the lowest gas prices since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when the price of gas fell to $2.22 per gallon. 

‘Remarkably affordable summer’

“We’ve seen a remarkably affordable summer to hit the road with incomes up and gas prices down, but there are some challenges that remain: hurricane season and uncertainty over trade, tariffs and Russia’s war on Ukraine,” said Patrick De Haan, an analyst with GasBuddy.

“However, I remain optimistic that as cooler weather invades, gas prices too will seasonally cool off,” he said.

Last year, gas prices averaged $3.29 per gallon, and in 2023, they reached $3.77.

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Factors that will drive down prices

AAA is also predicting lower gas prices despite a rise in prices last month due to family vacations before summer officially ends, according to the agency’s corporate communications manager, Doug Shupe.

Shupe told San Antonio station KSAT that prices should drop as gasoline demand falls and the nation transitions to its winter blend of gasoline, which is cheaper to produce. 

Industry analysts have also said that oil producers’ increased output has helped keep prices steady this year. OPEC+ has increased production and announced plans to further ramp up production again in September. U.S. crude oil production has also reached record highs in 2025, at more than 13 million barrels of oil per day. Smaller producers such as Brazil and Guyana have also increased their production, as reported by USA Today.

Customers should shop around for best prices

As for drivers, Shupe recommends shopping around gas stations to find the cheapest price. He notes that high-demand gas stations, such as those located near interstates or highways, typically have higher prices. 

Shupe also said that fuel retailers are legally allowed to set their own prices and can use them to entice customers.

“Bottom line is, shop around for the cheapest gas prices,” he added. “Don’t just go to that gas station because it’s easy to get to.”

Cole Lauterbach (Managing Editor) and Bast Bramhall (Video Editor) contributed to this report.
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Why this story matters

Gas prices for Labor Day weekend are expected to be the lowest since 2020, affecting travel costs for millions of Americans and reflecting broader trends in energy production and market stability.

Travel and demand

Analysts note that lower gas prices coincide with peak holiday travel, and a decrease in seasonal gasoline demand is expected after summer, impacting both consumers and fuel producers.

Market and supply factors

Reports from sources like AAA and USA Today cite increased U.S. and international oil production and steady crude prices as reasons for this year's stability, while cautioning that refinery outages and global events may still affect prices.

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Context corner

Labor Day traditionally signals the end of the summer travel season in the US, which often brings a shift to cheaper winter gasoline blends and a decline in demand, both historically contributing to falling gas prices after the holiday.

Do the math

GasBuddy projects $3.15 per gallon in 2025 versus $3.29 in 2024 and $3.77 in 2023. AAA’s reported state averages support this: Pennsylvania at $3.31, Missouri at $2.83 and California at $4.49, highlighting state-by-state taxation differences.

Policy impact

Sources suggest that state gas taxes and regulatory actions, such as changes to refinery rules or seasonal gasoline blends, have direct impacts on consumer prices, especially in states like Illinois and California with higher fuel taxes.

SAN provides
Unbiased. Straight Facts.

Don’t just take our word for it.


Certified balanced reporting

According to media bias experts at AllSides

AllSides Certified Balanced May 2025

Transparent and credible

Awarded a perfect reliability rating from NewsGuard

100/100

Welcome back to trustworthy journalism.

Find out more

Bias comparison

  • Not enough unique coverage from media outlets on the left to provide a bias comparison.
  • Media outlets in the center focus on detailed supply-demand data and travel forecasts, presenting a more measured, objective portrayal.
  • Media outlets on the right highlight the drop to the lowest levels since 2020 with a positive, almost triumphant tone—evident when a right-leaning source credits “cheapest… Under Trump,” framing price declines as a political win.

Media landscape

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52 total sources

Key points from the Left

No summary available because of a lack of coverage.

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Key points from the Center

  • GasBuddy reported the U.S. National average price for a gallon of regular fell to $3.13 this past week, the lowest late-August level since 2020.
  • EIA data show gasoline demand fell recently from 9 million b/d to 8.84 million b/d while total domestic gasoline supply and crude oil inventories edged down by 6 million barrels.
  • GasBuddy forecasted an average Labor Day weekend price of $3.15 per gallon for 2025, and Patrick De Haan said, `Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer, and when it comes to gas prices, it’s been the cheapest summer to hit the road since the pandemic`.
  • With cheaper fuel, daily traffic counts are high, reaching 710,000 drivers on August 29, boosting travel demand over the holiday weekend.
  • Regional refinery problems — including BP Whiting refinery's temporary shutdown after flooding — have raised prices in nearly half of states, though winter gasoline transition in mid‑September may ease costs.

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Key points from the Right

  • Gas prices for Labor Day are expected to be $3.15 per gallon, which is the lowest since Labor Day 2020, according to an analysis by GasBuddy.
  • Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy stated that this summer has been the cheapest for road trips since the pandemic.
  • Gas prices have risen in nearly half of all states due to localized refinery outages, although relief is expected as the nation switches to cheaper winter gas in mid-September.
  • Demand for gasoline is anticipated to decrease as summer ends and drivers take fewer road trips.

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