Mavericks hit Cooper Flagg jackpot, win NBA lottery despite 1.8% chance


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Summary

Mavericks hit the jackpot

The Dallas Mavericks won the NBA draft lottery and the No. 1 overall pick, overcoming 1.8% odds –– the fourth lowest ever.

Flagg likely the choice

Unless they work out a blockbuster trade, the Mavericks are likely to select Duke freshman Cooper Flagg with the top pick.

Some teams have terrible luck

The Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards each had the highest odds to get No. 1 at 14%, but finished fourth, fifth and sixth, respectively.


Full story

The Dallas Mavericks finally had something go right this season, as the ping pong balls bounced their way in the NBA draft lottery Monday night, May 12. The Mavericks now have the top pick in the draft and could use it to select college player of the year Cooper Flagg in June. 

Who will likely be the top pick going to Dallas?

The 6-foot-9 18-year-old from Duke will likely be the top pick after completing a dominating freshman season, leading the Blue Devils to the Final Four. He played 37 games in his lone season in Durham, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game, winning National Player of the Year honors.

The Mavericks won the lottery for the first time in team history. They had a slim 1.8% chance –– the fourth-lowest odds ever –– to land the top pick. The lottery win is the highlight of a tumultuous season, which saw the front office trade superstar Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers midseason. That trade shocked the league and upset the fan base. Soon after, center Anthony Davis and guard Kyrie Irving were injured, ruining the season. Now with Flagg possibly joining the fold, the future is much brighter.

Who are the rest of the top 5 teams?

The San Antonio Spurs have the second overall pick, the first of two lottery selections –– they also have the 12th overall pick –– to find players to pair with young center Victor Wembanyama, who was the number one overall pick in 2023. The Philadelphia 76ers finished third in the lottery. Then it’s the Charlotte Hornets and Utah Jazz, both of whom had a 14% chance of winning the lottery but got some terrible luck.  

During his season-ending press conference, Utah Jazz general manager Justin Zanik talked about his young players like Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George and Kyle Filipowski, saying they have the ammunition to make a move if they see a deal that makes sense.

“We do have two firsts this year, and two seconds, so that gives us some flexibility to maybe move around,” Zanik said. “So we do have the capacity to add a couple players through the draft with our roster. You guys can bring out all your rabbit’s foots and lucky charms and see what happens.”

Who else had some tough luck Monday night?

Like the Hornets and Jazz, the Washington Wizards also had a 14% chance but fell to number six. They are still feeling good about the young players who got time on the court this past season. Their pace of play was top five in the league, and adding another young star to their core will only help. However, general manager Will Dawkins recently warned against expecting a complete turnaround, even with a top pick.  

“The ability to continue to steady grow,” Dawkins said. “We haven’t put a timeline on when we want to get there. We want to make sure we’re providing the runway for guys to take off and play young players, and I think we did that this year, and we’ll continue to do that next season. And you saw the young lineups, you’ll see a few more next season for sure.”

Who are some of the other prospects available?

A few prospects that could be drafted right after Flagg include Rutgers guard Dylan Harper and his college teammate Ace Bailey. Most mock drafts expect those players to be selected in the top five. Guards V.J. Edgecombe from Baylor and Tre Johnson from Texas will be high picks as well, along with two of Flagg’s Blue Devils teammates, guard Kon Knueppel and center Khaman Maluach.

Now that the league’s draft order is set, expect some trade scenarios to surface. The biggest rumor going in NBA circles right now involves Milwaukee center Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will reportedly entertain offers to play for another team. The NBA draft will be held June 25 in Brooklyn.

Joey Nunez (Video Editor) contributed to this report.
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Why this story matters

The Dallas Mavericks' winning the NBA draft lottery and the likely selection of top prospect Cooper Flagg could reshape the team's future and alter the landscape of the NBA offseason.

Draft lottery outcome

The unexpected result of the Mavericks winning the draft lottery, despite having only a 1.8% chance, sets a new direction for a franchise that experienced a tumultuous season.

Top prospect selection

The anticipated selection of Cooper Flagg, who excelled in his freshman season at Duke, could provide the Mavericks with a key talent to rebuild around following major team changes.

Team rebuilding and trades

Recent trades, injuries and rumors of high-profile moves, such as the possibility of Giannis Antetokounmpo being available, highlight a broader trend of team restructuring and strategic maneuvering in the NBA.

Get the big picture

Synthesized coverage insights across 23 media outlets

Behind the numbers

The Dallas Mavericks had just a 1.8% chance — 18 out of 1,001 combinations — to win the first pick in the NBA draft lottery, according to several sources. Statistically, this is among the lowest odds ever to result in a No. 1 pick, emphasizing the improbability and excitement around Dallas’ good fortune this year.

Context corner

The NBA Draft Lottery system is designed to give teams with worse records higher odds at early draft picks, but it is also known for producing surprising outcomes. Historically, teams with odds as low as the Mavericks’ rarely win the top pick — adding context to the skepticism and excitement surrounding Dallas’ fortune.

Debunking

Conspiracy theories asserting the lottery is rigged surfaced in reactions, but there is no verifiable evidence supporting claims of manipulation. The NBA uses a standardized method with ping pong balls and established odds to ensure transparency, and opinion pieces making such claims are speculative humor rather than substantiated accusations.

Bias comparison

  • Media outlets on the left emphasize the Washington Wizards’ struggles and the meritocratic nature of their missed opportunity, portraying Cooper Flagg as an electrifying, young talent whose college achievements legitimize the Mavericks’ win.
  • Media outlets in the center inject a tone of suspicion, spotlighting conspiracy theories around the lottery’s fairness and critiquing the Mavericks’ “baffling trade,” blending excitement over Flagg’s potential with caution and controversy.
  • Media outlets on the right focus on the Mavericks’ victory with energized, winning language like “sweepstakes,” highlighting success and excitement without delving into broader team contexts or skepticism.

Media landscape

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