A large-scale Russian drone attack on Ukraine early Saturday morning prompted a military aircraft response from Poland and other allied nations. Tensions have been escalating in the wider region since Sept. 9, when Poland shot down a “huge number of Russian drones” that, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, “posed a direct threat” to the country.
Polish air defenses reach ‘maximum readiness’
CNN reports that Moscow’s massive drone attack on Ukraine early Saturday morning struck near its western border with Poland. In response, Poland and allied air defenses “reached a state of maximum readiness.”
“Due to the activity of the Russian Federation’s long-range aviation, which is carrying out strikes on the territory of Ukraine, Polish and allied aviation has begun operating in our airspace,” Poland’s operational command wrote in a post on X. “Duty fighter pairs have been scrambled, and ground-based air defense systems as well as radiolocation reconnaissance have reached a state of maximum readiness.”
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At least three people died in Russia’s overnight airstrikes on Ukraine early Saturday morning. Forty missiles, both cruise and ballistic, as well as nearly 600 drones, targeted nine areas across the country, including Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy and Kharkiv.
Estonian airspace also threatened
Saturday’s strikes came just hours after three Russian Mig-31 fighter jets flew over Estonian airspace for roughly 12 minutes. In a post on X, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said that “NATO fighters responded and the Russian planes were forced to flee,” adding, “Such violation is totally unacceptable.”
According to the commander of Estonia’s military intelligence center, the Russian pilots were given signals to leave by Italian jets that NATO scrambled. However, the Russian pilots ignored those signals –– a charge Moscow denies.
“The Russian pilots didn’t actually follow the signs that the Italian pilots showed them,” said Col. Ants Kiviselg. “So why they didn’t do it? That’s a question for the Russian pilots.”
Estonia’s minister of defense, Hanno Pevkur, said that Russia’s tactics are designed to distract Western allies from protecting Ukraine and instead focus on their own security.
“I see here a very clear link that Russia is provoking not only in Poland, not only Estonia –– all NATO, in cyber field, in airspace –– and the reason behind that is that they think that we should talk more about our own defense and not so much about Ukraine,” said Pevkur.
Estonia, a small Baltic nation and former member of the Soviet Union, requested NATO Article 4 consultations, meaning the organization’s governing body will convene in the next few days to review the incident and determine how the allies might respond.
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart called the incursion into Estonian airspace “reckless Russian behavior.”
Similarly, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “I don’t love it. I don’t like when that happens. It could be big trouble, but I’ll let you know later.”
In a post on X, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote, “Russian military aircraft once again violated NATO airspace—this time over Estonia.” Zelenskyy went on to write, “These are not accidents. This is a systematic Russian campaign directed against Europe, against NATO, against the West. And it requires a systemic response. Strong action must be taken—both collectively and individually by each nation.”
How did we get here?
The recent escalation in Russian tactics in and around Ukraine was sparked on Sept. 9, when Poland said that it had downed numerous Russian drones over its own airspace. It was one of the first times NATO artillery directly targeted Russian munitions since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In response, Poland also invoked Article 4.
“This is the first time in this war that [the drones] did not come from Ukraine as a result of errors or minor Russian provocations,” Tusk said. “For the first time, a significant portion of the drones came directly from Belarus,” a staunch Russian ally.
Tusk and senior Polish leaders added that this is the closest their country has come to an all-out war since the end of World War II 80 years ago.
Russian officials said that they had no intention of targeting Poland, while Belarus said it had tracked several drones that got jammed and “lost their course.”
Days later, NATO announced the launch of “Eastern Sentry,” which it described as military activity aimed at bolstering NATO’s posture along the confederation’s eastern flank.
“The violation of Poland’s airspace earlier this week is not an isolated incident and impacts more than just Poland,” said Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich. “While a full assessment of the incident is ongoing, NATO is not waiting, we are acting.”
In addition to Eastern Sentry, Zelenskyy is also working to coordinate his country’s air defenses with Poland, telling reporters on Saturday, “I believe it is fair to talk about a joint decision. Not only to prevent the drone from falling on the heads of Ukrainians and reaching Polish territory, but also to ensure that decisions are made together.”
