New York City could lose 80k homes to flooding by 2040: Report

• A new report from the Regional Plan Association warns climate change will worsen the housing crisis in the Tri-State area, with New York, New Jersey and Connecticut at risk of losing homes and future developments to flooding. The report highlights the urgent need for zoning reforms to address the housing shortage and mitigate flood risks.
• New York City’s “City of Yes” housing reforms could add 82,000 new housing units, reducing the deficit in the study area by 11%.
• The RPA predicts within the next 15 years, over 80,000 homes in New York City’s suburbs could be lost to flooding, affecting 1.6 million people.

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In a nation already grappling with a housing shortage, a new report reveals that climate change is intensifying the crisis in the Tri-State area. The Regional Plan Association (RPA) warns coastal cities across the U.S. must confront this reality head-on.

1 million homes could be lost to flooding

New York, New Jersey and Connecticut could lose both existing homes and future developments due to flooding. The RPA’s report aims to guide city and state leaders on how to protect nearly 1 million homes from high-risk flooding in these states.

The RPA focused on eastern New York City and its surrounding suburbs, uncovering a housing shortage of 1.2 million homes due to land gradually becoming unsuitable for development because of flood risks. The organization believes zoning reform can address the housing crisis and the threat of climate-induced flooding.

Zoning laws, which determine what can be built in specific areas, play a crucial role. Currently, the National Zoning Atlas estimates a shortfall of 680,000 homes by 2040, as current residential zoning only allows for 45% of potential homes to be built. The RPA sees this gap as an opportunity to tackle both the housing deficit and flood risks while also considering infrastructure and environmental impacts.

New York City housing reforms

New York City’s “City of Yes” housing reforms could add 82,000 new housing units, reducing the housing deficit in the study area from 758,000 to 676,000, a decrease of 11%. However, the RPA stresses this is just a start. The reforms make it easier to build more homes in every neighborhood, offering more housing options for New Yorkers and helping to lower costs.

How has New York City addressed flooding concerns?

Looking ahead, the RPA’s findings predict in the next 15 years, New York City’s suburbs could lose over 80,000 homes to flooding, putting 1.6 million people at risk. Coastal flooding has been an ongoing challenge for the city, particularly since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In response, city officials have implemented infrastructure measures to protect waterfront neighborhoods from storm surges.

The New York City Department of City Planning has updated its zoning regulations, paving the way for flood-resilient structures, lower insurance costs and the ability to recover from disasters quickly. In addition, the city established Special Coastal Risk Districts in 2017 to address flood-prone areas.

The RPA estimates that more than 360,000 homes are needed to combat overcrowding in New York City—an urgent number that could triple over the next 15 years.