It’s peak moving season, but most people are staying put, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Americans have been moving less for years now. Renters are no exception, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a report.
The bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that renters who expect to move in the next three years fell by more than 20 percentage points from 2016 to 2026, going from roughly 57% to 37%. At the same time, the share of homeowners predicting a move went from 20% to 14%.
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But while a homeowner’s reasons for staying put might be different from those of a renter, the growing challenges of homeownership are a factor in renters’ relocations.
“For renters, moving can be closely associated with the decision to become a homeowner,” researchers said.
And renters aren’t optimistic about their chances of owning a house. On average, a renter’s probability of ever owning a home declined from about 52% in 2015 to close to 35% by 2025.
“Renters with reduced expectations about future homeownership are precisely the ones who do not expect to move in the near future,” researchers wrote.
Renters who reported a low probability of owning a home, from 0% to 20%, had a 1 in 4 chance of moving in the next three years. Meanwhile, 3 in 4 renters who reported being 81% to 100% certain they would one day own a home will probably move in that three-year span.
Researchers cited two explanations for renters with dwindling expectations of homeownership: renters might find it unaffordable because of their perceptions of higher mortgage rates, home prices and other costs; or they might not want to own a home as a matter of preference.
About 27% of people surveyed said getting a mortgage would be very difficult in 2021. In 2024, that increased to 45%.
If people are moving, where?
A Bank of America Institute report published earlier this year came to a similar conclusion, finding that people aren’t moving as much — and if they are, they aren’t going far.
Over the past couple of years, Bank of America found that long-distance moves fell more precipitously than moves within the same metro area (11% and 4%, respectively). But more recently, both types of relocation are dropping at around the same pace of 5%.
Those who do move, Bank of America found, are often headed to the Midwest. Midwestern cities made up six of the top 10 fastest-growing cities.
“It’s possible that some are moving wherever they can find a job, given the soft labor market for young people, particularly new graduates,” Bank of America Institute economist Joe Wadford wrote. “Others may be more attracted to a city’s culture or lifestyle.”
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