Russia bears the brunt as Ukraine war casualties exceed 2 million

Britain’s top cyber intelligence official says Russia’s losses in Ukraine are nearing a grim milestone. — Image credit: Olga MALTSEVA / AFP via Getty Images

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Casualties from more than four years of war in Ukraine now exceed 2 million, according to new research, and most of the dead and wounded are Russian.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies said Wednesday that Russian casualties — including killed, wounded and missing soldiers — have totaled about 1.4 million since the war began in 2022, with about 450,000 fatalities. The center’s report said between 125,000 and 150,000 Ukrainians have died in combat, with total casualties running between 525,000 and 625,000.

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The report’s findings confirm the assessment of Britain’s top cyber intelligence official, who says Russian President Vladimir Putin is “going backwards on the battlefield.”

Anne Keast-Butler, the director of the U.K.’s Government Communications Headquarters, gave her grim assessment during the agency’s annual lecture in London.

The heavy losses are creating financial strains on the Russian government. Its military spending on personnel rose from about $39 billion in 2024 to more than $50 billion in 2025, or roughly 10% of total government spending.

Why it matters

By some accounts, Russia is losing eight men killed or seriously wounded for every one lost by Ukraine.

Col. Joby Rimmer, senior military adviser to the U.K. delegation to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said average monthly Russian casualties in early 2026 “exceeded 30,000,” even during winter, when operations were partly constrained.

And the longer the war continues, the more Russia has to recruit, replace losses and absorb the strain of sustaining its campaign. Moscow is offering sign-up bonuses of $80,000 and up to $140,000 in debt relief to draw more men into the fight.

Rimmer said Russia’s shrinking pool of volunteers is narrowing Moscow’s options, making financial incentives more expensive, while a forced call-up of reservists could risk domestic instability.

What the numbers mean for new recruits

The outlook for new Russian recruits appears especially grim, though some of the most striking accounts come from partisan sources.

Astra, an independent Russian outlet, reported that pro-war Russian Telegram channels claimed Russian assault troops survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes once they reach the front line. Astra also reported that one cited channel put the time from training ground to combat zone at 10 days to three weeks.

Those claims have not been independently verified. But Russia’s military bloggers and pro-war Telegram channels have become closely watched sources on battlefield conditions because of their access to the front and their willingness to criticize Russia’s military leadership, even as they support the invasion.

The losses reflect a changing battlefield, where drones have become one of the conflict’s main killing tools. Keast-Butler made a broader version of that point in her GCHQ speech, saying warfare is being reshaped by data, AI and automation in conflicts from Ukraine to Iran.

How Ukraine is adding pressure inside Russia

Ukraine’s drone campaign is one part of the strain on Moscow.

Kyiv’s domestically produced long-range drones, including the FP-1, FP-2 and Hornet, have allowed Ukraine to hit targets far beyond the front line. Those strikes have included refineries, pipelines, fuel depots and energy export infrastructure.

The damage has reduced Russia’s refining capacity by 700,000 barrels a day, while fuel shortages and rationing have spread in parts of Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea.

What’s next

The pressure on Russia does not mean Ukraine is close to a decisive victory.

Ukraine still faces long odds in recovering major territory or delivering a knockout blow. But the war is becoming more costly for Russia on the battlefield and inside its economy.

Keast-Butler also warned that Russia is increasing hybrid activity against the U.K. and Europe, targeting critical infrastructure, democratic processes, supply chains and public trust. She said GCHQ is working with intelligence and defense partners to counter Russian cyberattacks, sabotage attempts and efforts to smuggle Western technology.

Reuters reported that Polish officials recently warned of possible Russian sabotage operations aimed at inflaming tensions between Poles and Ukrainians. Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s minister in charge of special services, said, “Russia has an arsenal of such actions and … they are preparing them.”

The result is a more volatile phase of the war, where neither side appears close to a decisive battlefield win, Russia is absorbing heavy losses, Ukraine is finding new ways to strike back and Western officials are warning that Moscow’s pressure campaign is reaching deeper into Europe.