Ukraine is heading toward winter with an air-defense imbalance that is getting harder to manage. Russia is producing more ballistic missiles and fielding faster drones while Kyiv struggles to replace the interceptors needed against the most dangerous threats.
The most pressing shortage involves Patriot interceptors. Ukraine depends on the U.S.-made system to counter ballistic missiles, but Bloomberg reports Russia has ramped up ballistic-missile production while also adding faster versions of the cheap-but-effective Shahed drone.
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Kyiv is trying to widen its defenses beyond Patriot. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that Ukraine has developed prototypes of high-speed interceptors and is working to move that technology forward more quickly.
Those efforts could strengthen Ukraine’s defenses over time. They do not solve the shortage it faces this winter.
Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told Bloomberg that Ukraine has “effectively run out of missile defense capabilities” compared with the size of the threat. He said additional interceptors are critical if Kyiv is to improve its position in the coming months.
Patriots remain the immediate need
Zelenskyy says Ukraine needs 300 Patriot missiles to make it through the winter.
Finding that many is proving difficult.
The U.S. war with Iran has reduced the pool of interceptors available globally and pushed some future deliveries further out.
Ukraine has also approached South Korea and Japan without securing additional missiles so far. Within NATO and the European Union, Bloomberg reports Spain and Greece are facing pressure to release some of the Patriot interceptors they hold in reserve.
There may eventually be another source. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that talks are underway on a licensing agreement that would allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles domestically.
Rubio also acknowledged that such production would not address Kyiv’s immediate shortage.
Other defenses solve only parts of the problem
With Patriots scarce, Ukraine is pursuing several alternatives at the same time.
Zelenskyy says two additional French-Italian SAMP/T systems are expected in future years, but ammunition has been a problem there as well. The SAMP/T already in Ukraine has not had a steady supply of missiles for much of the war.
Freyja is further from becoming an operational alternative. Bloomberg reports its developer, Fire Point, still needs components made in Europe, where existing manufacturing capacity falls short of what the project would require.
Electronic warfare offers a different option.
Ukraine’s Limas system has had some success against Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. But a commander involved in the project said Limas is insufficient against Iskander missiles, which can fly at much higher altitudes.
Together, those alternatives still leave Ukraine without a near-term replacement for Patriot.
Russia is not waiting for winter
Kyiv is already feeling the pressure.
Russian air attacks have killed more than 80 people in the capital and surrounding region since the beginning of August.
Moscow has also introduced weapons that are harder for Ukraine to intercept, including jet-powered drones and Banderol, a system that combines features of a drone and a missile.
The attacks are continuing as U.S. envoys prepare for another possible round of contacts with Moscow and Kyiv.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend. The Kremlin has not confirmed the trip. Zelenskyy has said he expects to meet with U.S. representatives in the coming days.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that negotiations are still possible. He also said Russia and Ukraine would first need to find agreement between themselves, with countries such as the United States and China able to help.
Ukraine looks for ways to move the pressure east
Kyiv is also expanding drone operations inside Russia.
Ukrainian officials say civilian aircraft are not the targets. Instead, The Wall Street Journal reports Kyiv wants to increase drone activity around Russian airports enough to make normal flight operations increasingly difficult to maintain.
That would add another layer to Ukraine’s growing long-range campaign against military and economic infrastructure inside Russia.
Ukraine is also seeking another way to target Russian missile launchers inside Russia.
Kyiv is seeking Starlink access over Russian territory so Ukrainian drones can operate against ballistic-missile launchers. According to the report, granting that request would require President Donald Trump’s approval.
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