Social Security trust fund projected to run dry in less than 10 years

The main trust fund used to pay Social Security benefits is projected to be depleted by 2033 if lawmakers no changes to the system. — Image credit: William Thomas Cain/Getty Images

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Summary

Trust fund depletion

According to the SSA, the main trust fund for Social Security is projected to be depleted by 2033. When combined with Social Security Disability Insurance, total reserves are now expected to run out by 2034 — one year earlier than previously projected.

Projected benefit reductions

The SSA has indicated that if no changes are made to the program, it will only be able to pay about 81% of scheduled benefits by 2034. This is due to the growing gap between revenue from payroll taxes and the amount needed for benefits.

SSA calls for action

SSA Commissioner Frank Bisignano described the trust fund's financial status as “a top priority for the Trump administration,” and called on Congress to act.

Full story

The main trust fund used to pay Social Security benefits is projected to be depleted by 2033, and when combined with Social Security Disability Insurance, the forecast gets even worse. In its annual report released on Wednesday, June 18, the Social Security Administration (SSA) said total reserves for both programs are now expected to run out by 2034, one year earlier than last year’s projection.

The trust fund lost $67 billion in 2024, continuing a trend that began in 2021, when program costs started exceeding income revenue. As of this year, total reserves stand at $2.72 trillion, but they’re shrinking fast.

According to Pew Research, 73.9 million Americans were receiving Social Security benefits as of April 2025, including 52.6 million retirees. That same month, the program paid out $134.5 billion.

The issue, according to experts, is the number of beneficiaries is rising faster than the number paying into the system. In 2024, 184 million Americans contributed to Social Security through payroll taxes but that’s not enough to keep up with demand. By 2033, analysts project the annual shortfall will reach $414.5 billion.

The current payroll tax is 12.4%, split evenly between workers and employers. If lawmakers make no changes, the SSA warns that by 2034, it will only be able to pay about 81% of scheduled benefits.

To help close the gap, the SSA has already started redeeming its stockpile of U.S. Treasury securities that have built up in the trust fund over time.

SSA Commissioner Frank Bisignano acknowledged the urgency, calling the trust fund’s financial status “a top priority for the Trump administration.”

“To ensure we serve the public and deliver high-quality service to the 185 million people who work and pay payroll taxes for Social Security and the 70 million beneficiaries who will receive benefits during 2025, the financial status remains a top priority for the Trump Administration,” he said.

Bisignano also called on Congress to act, saying lawmakers and the SSA must work together to eliminate “waste, fraud, and abuse” and “to protect and strengthen the trust fund for the millions of Americans who rely on it — now and in the future.”

What are the possible solutions in Congress?

To address the looming shortfall, lawmakers may consider raising payroll taxes, cutting benefits or some combination of both — none of which are politically popular. Another proposal gaining traction: raising the retirement age.

Despite repeated warnings from the SSA and economists, Congress has so far taken no major action to secure the future of Social Security.

Jason Morrell (Morning Managing Editor), Devin Pavlou (Digital Producer), and Shianne DeLeon (Video Editor) contributed to this report.

Tags: Congress, federal funding, Money, Social Security, U.S. Treasury Department

[Craig Nigrelli]

The main trust fund used to pay Social Security benefits is projected to be depleted by 2033 – and when combined with Social Security Disability Insurance, the forecast gets even worse. In its annual report released this week, the Social Security Administration (SSA) said total reserves for both programs are now expected to run out by 2034, one year earlier than last year’s projection.
The trust fund lost $67 billion in 2024, continuing a trend that began in 2021, when program costs started exceeding income revenue. As of this year, total reserves stand at $2.72 trillion – but they’re shrinking fast.
According to Pew Research, 73.9 million Americans were receiving Social Security benefits as of April 2025, including 52.6 million being retirees. That same month, the program paid out $134.5 billion.
The problem? The number of beneficiaries is rising faster than the number of workers paying into the system. In 2024, 184 million Americans contributed to Social Security through payroll taxes – but that’s not enough to keep up with demand. By 2033, the projected annual shortfall is expected to hit $414.5 billion.
The current payroll tax is 12.4%, split evenly between workers and employers. If no changes are made, the SSA says that by 2034, it will only be able to pay about 81% of scheduled benefits.
To help close the gap, the SSA has already started redeeming its stockpile of U.S. Treasury securities that have built up in the trust fund over time.
SSA Commissioner Frank Bisignano acknowledged the urgency, calling the trust fund’s financial status “a top priority for the Trump administration.”
“To ensure we serve the public and deliver high-quality service to the 185 million people who work and pay payroll taxes for Social Security and the 70 million beneficiaries who will receive benefits during 2025, the financial status remains a top priority for the Trump Administration,” he said.
Bisignano also called on Congress to act, saying lawmakers and teh SSA must work together to eliminate “waste, fraud, and abuse” and “to protect and strengthen the trust fund for the millions of Americans who rely on it – now and in the future.”
To address the looming shortfall, lawmakers may consider raising payroll taxes, cutting benefits, or some combination of both – none of which are politically popular. Another proposal gaining traction: raising the retirement age.
Despite repeated warning from the SSA and economists, Congress has so far taken no major action to secure the future of Social Security.

Why this story matters

The projected depletion of Social Security trust funds by 2034 raises concerns about the future stability of benefits for millions of Americans, underscoring the need for legislative action to address the program's financial challenges.

Funding shortfall

The Social Security Administration projects that its trust funds could run out by 2034, necessitating urgent attention to prevent potential benefit reductions.

Demographic imbalance

The number of beneficiaries is rising faster than the number of workers contributing to the system, increasing pressure on Social Security's solvency.

Policy solutions

Lawmakers are considering changes such as raising payroll taxes, adjusting benefits or increasing the retirement age to address the program's financial shortfall, though these measures remain politically contentious.

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Synthesized coverage insights across 215 media outlets

Behind the numbers

The Social Security trust funds are projected to be depleted by 2034, potentially causing a 19-23% reduction in benefits. Currently, about 69-70 million Americans rely on Social Security, with average monthly payments near $1,976. After depletion, only around 77-81% of scheduled benefits would be payable unless Congress intervenes. Medicare’s hospital fund faces a similar shortfall by 2033.

Context corner

The financial issues facing Social Security and Medicare stem largely from demographic shifts, including increased life expectancy and a growing population of retirees compared to the working population. The program was adapted last in the early 1980s; current pressures include more beneficiaries drawing funds and fewer workers contributing, alongside new legislative changes affecting benefits.

History lesson

Social Security experienced its last major reforms about 40 years ago, raising the retirement age and adjusting benefits. Historical attempts to change the program have met strong public resistance, reflecting its entrenched role in American society, but also illustrating the political challenges of enacting new reforms.

Sources

Bias comparison

Media outlets on the left emphasize the urgent need for Congressional action to avert Social Security’s “worsened” fiscal outlook, framing impending benefit cuts as avoidable through government intervention, often using conditional phrases like “if Congress doesn’t act.”
Media outlets in the center adopt a more measured tone, focusing on factual depletion dates and legislative impacts like the Social Security Fairness Act, which left coverage largely de-emphasizes.
Media outlets on the right highlight the “failure” to reform and cast the depletion timeline in alarmist terms such as “run dry” and “massive cuts,” while stressing Republican commitments to protect benefits amid calls for spending reductions.

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Media landscape

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215 total sources

Key points from the Left

Social Security will be unable to fully pay benefits to retirees and people with disabilities in 2034 unless lawmakers take action, according to Social Security's trustees.
The combined Social Security trust funds are expected to be exhausted in 2034, one year earlier than previously forecast, as stated in the trustees' annual report.
Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund is projected to cover inpatient benefits until 2033, down from 2036 in last year's report by Medicare's trustees.
Medicare will only be able to pay 89% of total scheduled Part A benefits in 2033, as the program's trustees noted, due to increased medical spending.

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Key points from the Center

A new annual report released Wednesday projects that Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund will be depleted by 2033 and Social Security's trust funds by 2034.
The earlier predicted depletion dates are driven by increasing medical expenses, recent laws expanding Social Security benefits, and demographic shifts such as lower birth rates and the aging Baby Boomer population.
A law passed early in the year eliminated certain offset rules and boosted retirement benefits for 2.8 million public service employees, influencing projections for the Social Security trust funds.
Social Security will fully pay benefits until 2034 but can cover only about 81% afterward, with the average current monthly retirement benefit at $1,976 and projected to be $450 lower by then in 2025 dollars.

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See Hide headlines from Center sources 97 sources

Key points from the Right

The Social Security program is expected to run out of money in 2034, a year earlier than previously projected, according to the Social Security Board of Trustees' report.
The OASI Trust Fund will be depleted in 2033, allowing only 77% of benefits to be paid at that time, as stated by the trustees.
The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in 2033, resulting in an 11% reduction in benefits, as reported by the trustees.
Trustees emphasize the need for timely legislative action to address financial challenges and prevent benefit cuts for millions of beneficiaries, according to their report.

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