States are ramping up preparations for a potentially powerful El Niño, with California mobilizing resources months before the heart of winter. Meanwhile, emergency and transportation officials elsewhere are preparing for hazards that could range from flooding and landslides to heavy snow and eventually spring river flooding.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency Monday as Pacific Ocean temperatures continued to rise, allowing the state to stage flood-fighting equipment, prepare roads and infrastructure and help communities reduce the risks of flooding, landslides and coastal damage.
The California National Guard could also be called on for flood response, search and rescue, engineering and logistics.
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The preparations illustrate the challenge facing governments across the country: El Niño can provide months of warning that weather patterns are shifting, but it cannot tell emergency managers exactly where the most damaging storms will strike. That leaves states preparing for a range of possibilities and trying to position people, equipment and money before individual storms appear in the forecast.
“We are not waiting for this season’s storms to be on our doorstep,” California Office of Emergency Services Director Caroline Thomas Jacobs said.
That uncertainty puts a premium on preparedness. Emergency managers cannot know months in advance which communities will face flooding, heavy snow or other severe weather, but El Niño can provide enough advance warning for governments, utilities and transportation agencies to evaluate staffing, equipment, supplies and budgets before individual storms appear in the forecast. Jared Maples, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told Straight Arrow News that temperatures had climbed slightly more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, putting the event in the very strong category.
National Weather Service information provided to Missouri emergency managers said there was a 93% to 98% chance El Niño would remain very strong from October through at least January and a 75% chance it could exceed the strength of previous events dating to 1950.
But stronger does not automatically mean snowier, wetter or more destructive everywhere. Maples recalled discussing a previous El Niño with a meteorologist who had worked in California. Forecasters expected significant rain, but it did not materialize as anticipated.
“This being a particularly strong and potential record-level event might fare differently,” Maples said. “We had some strong ones, but this is significantly anomalous.”
Different risks across the country
El Niño develops when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. The change can alter atmospheric circulation and shift storm paths across the United States. Where those storms ultimately go will determine who gets rain and snow. Maples said some drought-stricken areas stretching from Oregon through parts of Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas could benefit from a pattern favoring above-normal precipitation across portions of the southern United States.
“That might be some good that comes out of it there,” Maples said.
But beneficial precipitation can quickly become hazardous when too much arrives at once. Dry soil can initially repel heavy rain, Maples said, causing water to run off rapidly and increase the threat of flash flooding.
“When you first pour water onto a dry surface like that, the first thing that’s going to do before you moisten up the several inches of soil is that it runs off like it’s rock,” Maples said.
As the ground becomes saturated, additional rainfall can once again turn primarily into runoff. In mountainous terrain, prolonged heavy precipitation can also increase the potential for mudslides.
California and other parts of the West face another balancing act
Heavy precipitation can help replenish reservoirs, but Maples cautioned that some reservoirs need enormous amounts of water to fully recover from prolonged shortages. Atmospheric rivers could deliver substantial precipitation while simultaneously creating flooding and mudslide risks.
“It potentially could” help reservoirs, Maples said. “But they need so much water in those reservoirs that it’s hard to fathom how much would be needed to even fill them all back up.”
Snow remains part of the equation
Farther east, El Niño does not necessarily mean a snowless winter. The National Weather Service told Missouri emergency officials that southwest Missouri and far southeast Kansas sit in a transition zone between favored El Niño weather patterns, leaning toward above-normal temperatures and precipitation.
Maples said other atmospheric patterns will determine whether moisture arrives at the same time as sufficiently cold air. Changes in the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern, for example, can allow colder air to move south while Pacific storm systems bring moisture across the country. If those ingredients line up, significant snowstorms remain possible, particularly later in winter.
“A lot of people think that this is just going to be a warm, rainy, less-snow season,” Maples said. “Don’t count your chickens.”
If atmospheric patterns come together in January or February, he said, “you could get some pretty moisture-laden snowstorms.”
The difficulty is knowing where those ingredients will come together. Timing and placement are critical, Maples said, and individual storms generally cannot be forecast with useful specificity months ahead.
Preparing without knowing exactly what is coming
That leaves emergency managers with an unusual challenge: prepare for potentially significant weather without knowing exactly what form it will take. Missouri offers one example of how states are approaching that problem. The Missouri State Emergency Management Agency has adopted what it calls an all-hazards approach, designed to prepare for different types of disasters rather than one specific El Niño scenario.
“Our team is constantly learning, adjusting, and adapting to any potential threats or hazards Missouri faces,” SEMA spokesperson Cathy Luebbert said in a statement to Straight Arrow News.
“One of SEMA’s goals is to proactively mitigate the impact of disasters as much as possible before they occur, and to effectively react and respond when they do,” she said.
The state has also moved weather expertise directly into its emergency operations center. Missouri embedded a National Weather Service meteorologist full-time at the State Emergency Operations Center in March. The meteorologist monitors forecast models and helps emergency managers interpret potential hazards and their timing.
Missouri is among the first states to have an in-person resource working full-time at its emergency operations center, according to SEMA.
“We coordinate with the National Weather Service now more than ever to make informed decisions and assess potential needs when severe weather threatens our state,” Luebbert said.
Roads, crews and millions of miles
Transportation agencies also have to prepare before anyone knows how many storms the winter will bring. The Missouri Department of Transportation monitors long-range National Weather Service forecasts and uses a private professional forecasting service, according to Paul Denkler, a maintenance liaison with the agency. But the long-range outlook is only a starting point.
Once individual storms develop, MoDOT shifts its attention to forecasts about 72 hours before the storm, allowing officials to adjust personnel and equipment to the expected conditions.
“Each winter storm has its own unique challenges and characteristics,” Denkler told Straight Arrow News.
He compared winter preparation to a sports team preparing for a season. Workers train and prepare equipment before winter, but the strategy changes with each storm.
“Whatever Mother Nature may have in store for us this year, we’ll be ready for it,” Denkler said.
The logistics can be substantial
MoDOT drivers log roughly 5 million miles during a winter season responding to snow and other winter storms. Higher diesel prices add to the expense, but Denkler said fuel accounts for less than 10% of the agency’s overall winter operations budget. Labor, overtime, equipment use and the severity of the winter also determine the final cost. Higher fuel prices will not reduce the agency’s level of service, he said.
“We’ll plan for the worst and hope for the best,” Denkler said.
Winter weather can create spring problems
Preparedness does not end when winter does. Heavy rain and snow across northern portions of the country can eventually affect communities hundreds of miles downstream. Maples said sustained precipitation across the upper Mississippi River basin could increase the potential for river flooding farther south during the spring and summer. The risk may not be obvious in communities experiencing relatively dry conditions locally.
“If you’re not seeing a lot of rain and you’re getting all that moisture up to the north, and it continues to accumulate and push water down the Mississippi, that will just increase the chances, the odds that we would eventually be in that river flooding theme going into spring and summer,” Maples said.
The potential for cascading impacts is one reason emergency managers increasingly look beyond an individual storm. Maples said long-range climate information can help utilities, farmers, transportation departments and other organizations anticipate possible expenses and consider where equipment and other resources might eventually be needed.
“You’re not going to take specific actions that far out,” Maples said, but organizations can use the information to understand what they might face and begin considering “assets or expenses that might be involved.”
For residents, the same principle applies on a smaller scale. Missouri emergency officials, for example, use an annual Winter Weather Preparedness Week to encourage people to prepare before storms arrive. This year’s campaign is scheduled for Nov. 2-6. For forecasters, the coming months will provide increasingly detailed information about how El Niño is shaping the atmosphere and where storms are likely to develop. For emergency managers, waiting for that certainty is not an option.
“As state government continues to be proactive and help support an all-hazards approach, ongoing communication and coordination are essential to ensuring we do our best to keep Missourians safe,” Luebbert said.
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