Sports is beginning to get its fair share of artificial intelligence upgrades, but predicting a Super Bowl winner still isn’t a sure thing. “Bills Mafia” is hoping one of this year’s supercomputer predictions is right on the money.
Who is predicting a Super Bowl win for Buffalo?
Sports AI companies have ramped up efforts to help bettors, fantasy football players and other fans with the choices they make. Stats Perform is one such company, with various prediction models for different sports and leagues from the NFL and MLB to the English Premier League.
According to their Opta Analyst NFL model, Bills fans will be celebrating — and breaking a lot of tables — after their Super Bowl LX victory.
How strong is the computer’s prediction?
The model said Buffalo has a 12.9% chance of finishing with their first Super Bowl trophy. The Bills are followed by the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, last year’s two Super Bowl participants. The Green Bay Packers and the Jacksonville Jaguars round out the top five. That’s right: Jacksonville.
A couple more surprising teams in the top 10 include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears, ranked ahead of the defending National Football Conference North division champion Detroit Lions. Buffalo quarterback and reigning league MVP Josh Allen explained why the Bills are ready for the moment.
“I think we’ve come together pretty well,” Allen said after practice on Thursday, Aug. 7. “I think what our defense is doing right now is, it’s going to be pretty tough for quarterbacks and opposing offenses. Guys are flying around, they know their assignments. Then offensively, again, just adding the pieces that we’ve gotten over this offseason and just trying to get them up to speed with us.”
How did the supercomputer pick the Bills?
Stats Perform said their Opta Analyst model uses a formula that includes the starting quarterback — Allen being one of the best — and then it factors in expected yards in passing situations, among other statistics. The computer then simulates the entire season schedule for each team. Every bit of new data added to the mix can change the outcome.
The supercomputer gave the San Francisco 49ers a 24% chance of winning it all in 2024. The team was decimated by injuries and finished with a 6-11 record. The Philadelphia Eagles earned their second Super Bowl title in dominating fashion, but were not in the supercomputer’s top five when the season began.
How do the results differ from sportsbooks?
This year’s AI results differ from the betting odds posted at FanDuel and other sportsbooks in some respects. The Baltimore Ravens lead the way with gamblers at +650 odds, but they are seventh in the supercomputer picks. The Bills follow with the next best odds at +700, then the Eagles, Chiefs and Lions round out the top five.
The sportsbooks put some longer odds on teams like the Packers (+2000), Commanders (+2000) and Bucs (+2800), and they are especially cautious of the Bears (+3800) and Jaguars (+7000). Despite those betting numbers, the supercomputer has those teams in the top ten with the season less than a month from kickoff.
Opta Analyst updates its Super Bowl percentages weekly to reflect current results, statistics and injuries, similar to how betting markets operate. The difference is that sportsbooks adjust depending on how much money is wagered by actual humans; the computer simply crunches the numbers.
