Of the myriad stories to dominate 2025, the tariffs imposed at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in the White House were doubtlessly near the top. While the immediate risks and long-term benefits to consumers were hotly contested throughout the year, with the holiday season just around the corner, at least some of their impacts will soon be felt by the average American.
“After a period of cooling inflation, food price increases have begun to accelerate again in recent months,” David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, recently wrote. “Today, grocery or ‘food-at-home’ prices are 2.7% higher than a year ago and remain more than 25% higher than five years ago.”
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What’s up, what’s down this Thanksgiving?
According to Ortega’s analysis, the price of just about every Thanksgiving staple has increased this year. Turkeys and beef roasts are up 40% and 18%, respectively. Meanwhile, sides and produce are up nearly 5%, as pie prices rose a marginal 0.4%, on average.
Conversely, an analysis from Purdue University found that the price of potatoes has dropped by half a percentage point since August 2024, while bread prices have decreased 5.6% in the same time.
Recently, Trump rolled back tariffs on more than a few popular items that had seen steep price hikes due to tariffs. That includes coffee and tea, tropical fruits and fruit juices, cocoa and spices, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, beef and fertilizers previously subject to the reciprocal tariffs.
Tariffs aren’t wholly to blame, with Ortega citing additional factors such as inflation, labor and supply chain issues, and illnesses among poultry flocks and cattle herds. However, in some cases, tariffs are undeniably the culprit.
“The tariffs in place since the spring have probably had a modest impact on processing and packaging costs via higher steel and aluminum prices,” Ricky Volpe, a professor in Cal Poly’s agribusiness department, told Straight Arrow News. “That’s most likely why we’ve seen prices increase in recent months for categories like most frozen foods, canned fruits and vegetables, and butter (which relies on a lot of aluminum to package).”
Buying around tariffs
Volpe said that for 2025, “Anything canned is probably more expensive than it was last year.” However, that doesn’t mean Americans need to skip these side dishes altogether. Rather, experts like Volpe and Ortega recommend purchasing fresh produce and in-house labels.
“It is still considerably cheaper, in most cases, to prepare mashed potatoes, stuffing, green bean casserole, etc., from scratch than to rely on CPG [consumer packaged goods] products,” Volpe told SAN. “For those who are still shopping center aisles for convenience or any other reason, this is the time to try store brands. They are routinely 20% to 30% cheaper than comparable national brands these days, and shopper surveys regularly demonstrate they’re as good or better.”
Unfortunately, not every piece of a Thanksgiving table can be whipped up from scratch.
CNN recently reported that imported wines are more expensive this year, largely due to the 15% tariffs Trump imposed on the European Union. “It’s the reality of the tariffs, shipping, manufacturing and labor,” Daniel Mesznik, the owner of a wine shop in Manhattan, told the news outlet.
Similarly, while the prices of pies and desserts have remained relatively stable, on the whole, some ingredients will be impacted. “Global cocoa shortages from poor harvests in major producing countries have kept chocolate prices near record highs, making that chocolate pie or dessert bar a pricier indulgence,” Ortega wrote in MSU Today.
‘A path to real savings’
Volpe told SAN that while some price points for the perfect Thanksgiving dinner can’t be negotiated around, others definitely can. For instance, turkeys are often priced at or below cost, meaning a less expensive turkey, coupled with produce and raw ingredient purchases, can offset costs elsewhere, or simply make for a more affordable Thanksgiving dinner.
“It is common to see very deep discounts on turkeys with the expectation that shoppers will then purchase much of the remaining goods for Thanksgiving dinner once they are in the store,” Volpe said. “A path to real savings is to capitalize on turkey promotions and purchase as much of the rest of the meal as possible as raw, bulk commodities.”
