Voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District are heading to the polls today to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Mark Green, a Republican. Both Green and President Donald Trump carried this district by more than 20 points in 2024, but a new Emerson College survey shows Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn just 48% to 46%, well within the margin of error. Five percent of voters remain undecided.
Van Epps is still viewed as the favorite in what The Tennessean calls a safely Republican seat, yet both parties are treating the contest as unusually competitive.
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Why the outcome matters for House control
A Democratic flip in Tennessee would immediately tighten the GOP’s already narrow House majority. If Democrats also win upcoming special elections in two blue districts in Texas and New Jersey, the House could shrink to 218 Republicans and 216 Democrats – leaving GOP leadership with virtually no room for defections on party-line votes.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s planned Jan. 5 resignation would further complicate the math.
A district reshaped by redistricting
The current TN-07 boundaries were drawn by Republicans in 2022, dividing Democratic-heavy Nashville into three districts. The 7th now combines parts of North and West Nashville and suburban Williamson County with a long stretch of rural counties running through Middle Tennessee down to the Alabama border, making it a mix of urban, suburban and rural voters.
Who’s on the ballot and what they’re saying
Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative and longtime organizer, is campaigning on a platform of lowering costs for families. The Tennessean reports her agenda includes repealing the state’s 4% grocery tax and a focus on basic services, summarized by her slogan, “Feed kids, fix roads and fund hospitals.”
Republican Matt Van Epps is a combat veteran and West Point graduate who previously served as commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services. His campaign emphasizes the economy and border security, aligning with Trump’s “America First” agenda and promising to “fight alongside the president and the speaker to drive down cost of living,” according to CNN.
Also on the ballot are independents Teresa “Terri” Christie, Bobby Dodge, Robert James Sutherby and Jon Thorp.
How the campaigns framing the race
Republicans argue Behn is too far left for the district, highlighting past remarks in which she called herself “very radical,” backed defunding the police and said she hates Nashville. Behn says those comments predate her service in the legislature, argues she has “matured” since then and insists that organizing to make health care and groceries more affordable is not radical.
Van Epps and GOP allies have tied Democrats to higher taxes in ads, while Behn counters that voters are already struggling with rising costs and health expenses.
Money and national attention
Since the primary last month, outside groups have spent more than $5 million on advertising in the race, with Republican-aligned groups accounting for more than $3 million and Democratic allies at least $2 million. The Tennessean reports that Behn has outraised Van Epps nearly two-to-one.
Surrogates on both sides reflect the high stakes. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have rallied Republicans in the district, while former Vice President Al Gore, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other national Democrats have appeared with Behn or headlined virtual events on her behalf.
Polling splits to watch
The outcome may depend on when Tennesseans cast their ballots. According to last week’s polling by The Tennessean, Behn leads 56% to 42% among early voters, while Van Epps holds a 51% to 39% edge among those planning to vote today.
Young voters overwhelmingly back Behn; older voters break for Van Epps. Men slightly favor Van Epps, while women lean toward Behn.
What would constitute a “signal” result
Given the district’s deep-red history, analysts for The Tennessean say even a single-digit Democratic loss would signal serious trouble for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms. A Democratic upset would be a major blow to the GOP – and would immediately tighten their hold on the House.
