The stakes are high on both sides of the aisle in Texas on Tuesday as voters head to the polls for U.S. Senate primaries. Political observers say the results could signal where each party is headed heading into the November midterms — and even the 2028 presidential race.
Traditional conservative vs. MAGA challenger
Republican Sen. John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term, but this cycle he faces serious opposition from within his own party.
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging Cornyn in a race that has become a test of the Republican Party’s direction. Paxton’s political career has been marked by controversy, including his 2023 impeachment on allegations of bribery and abuse of office. The Texas Senate acquitted him. He was also indicted on securities fraud charges in a case resolved in 2024. More recently, his estranged wife filed for divorce, citing biblical grounds.
Despite those controversies, Paxton maintains strong support among MAGA-aligned voters. Two-term Congressman Wesley Hunt is also in the race.
President Donald Trump has praised all three candidates but has not formally endorsed anyone.
The New York Times reports Cornyn and allied super PACs have spent more than $60 million in the primary, saturating television and digital advertising.
Cornyn has emphasized his support for Trump’s agenda but has drawn criticism from some Texas Republicans for backing a bipartisan gun safety measure after the 2022 school shooting in Uvalde – a vote that led to boos at the state party convention.
At a recent small campaign stop in Houston, Cornyn told supporters, “I’m here to tell you I believe that character still matters.”
Paxton, speaking to supporters in Magnolia around the same time, mocked the incumbent, saying, “This doesn’t look much like a John Cornyn event, you know why? There are people here.”
Paxton has used his role as attorney general to aggressively challenge Democratic policies and supported Trump’s efforts to contest the 2020 election results, including filing an unsuccessful lawsuit seeking to overturn outcomes in other states. He has also pursued high-profile legal fights on abortion enforcement, immigration-related protests, and local development disputes.
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A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
Republican runoff possible
If no Republican candidate receives more than 50% of the vote Tuesday, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on May 26.
Democratic matchup
On the Democratic side, pundits say the race will be an indicator of whether the Party should target swing voters, or somebody who makes forceful anti-Trump speeches to fire up the base.
State Rep. James Talarico has campaigned in counties Trump won in 2024. Talarico has been promoting a message rooted in his Christian faith and appealing to moderate voters. Speaking recently in Dallas, he said, “There is a deep hunger for a different kind of politics. Not a politics of hate, or fear or division but a politics of love.”
Supporters say his approach aims to expand the party’s coalition beyond its base.
His opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, has taken a more combative tone, positioning herself as a forceful critic of Trump and a candidate who can energize Democratic voters.
At a recent event in Houston, she told a group of Black pastors, “We are in the fight for our lives… People can take a chance on somebody that says that they will fight — or they can go with a proven fighter.”
Crockett has rejected concerns about statewide electability, pointing to her rise from attorney to state representative to member of Congress. She has accused Talarico of trying to appeal to voters by softening Democratic positions.
Looking ahead
Early voting turnout has surged, giving Democrats cautious optimism in a state that Trump carried by more than a dozen points in 2024.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage in the Senate. Democrats must flip four seats in order to take control of the upper chamber and potentially block Trump’s agenda in his final two years.
Republicans are defending 22 Senate nationwide this cycle, including Texas, compared with 13 for Democrats.
