Tropical Storm Erin could become 1st major hurricane of 2025 by week’s end

Julia Marshall, Craig Nigrelli
The National Weather Service says Tropical Storm Erin could become the first major hurricane of the season by the end of the week.
Image credit: NOAA via AP
This recording was made using enhanced software.

Summary

Storm formation

Tropical Storm Erin formed just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, bringing heavy rain and causing deadly flooding that resulted in the deaths of at least seven people, including four children.

Storm forecasting

Satellite images show Erin moving westward with winds around 45 miles per hour. Forecasters predict the storm could intensify to Category 3 before passing north of Puerto Rico this weekend.

Preparedness advice

Forecast models project Erin curving away from the United States, but forecasters note it is still too early to determine its final path. NWS advises those on the East Coast to review their preparedness plans at this time.

Full story

Tropical Storm Erin is spinning in the eastern Atlantic and may intensify further. The National Weather Service said the storm could become the first major hurricane of the season by the end of the week.

The storm formed just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, already bringing heavy rain and causing deadly flooding. At least seven people, including four children, were killed.

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Erin forecasting

Satellite images show Erin moving westward with winds of around 45 miles per hour. Forecasters expect it to intensify over the next few days and potentially reach Category 3 strength before passing north of Puerto Rico this weekend.

NWS has not issued any watches or warnings for the storm as of Tuesday, given Erin is still out at sea. However, that could change as the storm nears land later this week.

Models project Erin curving away from the U.S., but it’s still too early to say for sure. In initial forecasts, the NWS advised those on the East Coast to use this time to ensure their preparedness plans are in place.

Hurricane season

Erin’s development comes months after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced it would likely be an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic.

NOAA predicted a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” 

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, and SAN will monitor Erin closely as the forecast updates.

Julia Marshall
Julia Marshall
Julia Marshall is a morning digital producer at Straight Arrow News. With a strong foundation in the newsroom, Julia brings sharp news instincts to SAN, along with exceptional writing and editing expertise across a wide range of topics and platforms, evident in her ability to quickly break news and produce clear, informative stories.
Craig Nigrelli
Craig Nigrelli
Craig Nigrelli is an anchor and reporter for Straight Arrow News. As the face of Unbiased Updates and Media Miss Minute, he delivers concise, impartial, fact‑based context grounded in 35 years of reporting and anchoring across major U.S. markets.
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Why this story matters

The approach of Tropical Storm Erin highlights the risks severe storms present to Atlantic coastal communities and emphasizes the importance of preparedness during what NOAA projects will be an above-normal hurricane season.

Storm forecasting and preparedness

Accurate forecasts and early warnings from organizations like the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center help communities prepare for potential impacts and can mitigate loss of life and property.

Hurricane season outlook

NOAA anticipates an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, increasing urgency for preparedness and awareness for those living in affected regions.

Human impact

The storm has already resulted in fatalities and flooding, demonstrating the real and immediate risks these weather events pose to communities in their path.

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Community reaction

Communities in the Cabo Verde Islands faced fatalities and damage as reported by various sources, with local authorities declaring periods of mourning. U.S. coastal communities are primarily preparing by monitoring updates and reviewing emergency plans, according to weather advisories.

Context corner

August marks the start of the most active months for hurricane season in the Atlantic, historically peaking in September. Storms forming near the Cabo Verde Islands, often called Cape Verde-type hurricanes, have potential to become major Atlantic hurricanes.

Debunking

There is no evidence in the reporting that Erin poses an immediate threat to the U.S. mainland at this time, as most models forecast the storm will move north of the Caribbean and possibly out to sea, according to multiple sources.

SAN provides
Unbiased. Straight Facts.™

Don't just take our word for it.

Certified balanced reporting

According to media bias experts at AllSides

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Awarded a perfect reliability rating from NewsGuard

100/100

Welcome back to trustworthy journalism.

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Sources

  1. The New York Times
  2. NOAA
  3. National Hurricane Center via X
  4. Fox Weather

Bias comparison

  • Media outlets on the left emphasize caution and prevention, framing Tropical Storm Erin as a looming environmental risk primarily by highlighting its expected strengthening into the season’s first hurricane and warning against misinformation, using terms like “expected” and “warning” to evoke vigilance without alarmism.
  • Not enough unique coverage from media outlets in the center to provide a bias comparison.
  • Media outlets on the right adopt a more measured, technical tone, frequently employing language such as “could develop” and “alert,” and incorporating meteorological details like the RealImpact™ Scale and recent events like Milwaukee’s “historic” flooding to contextualize but not exaggerate threats.

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Media landscape

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154 total sources

Key points from the Left

  • Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Aug. 11, 2025, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.
  • Erin is expected to strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season by Wednesday, with potential Category 3 status by the weekend.
  • The National Weather Service anticipates an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 to 18 named storms expected this year, including 5 to 9 that may become hurricanes.
  • Meteorologists are monitoring Erin closely, as its path could impact regions along the U.S. East Coast between Aug. 19 and Aug. 21.

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Key points from the Center

  • In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, forecasters said.
  • Amid the Atlantic season’s gradual intensification, a tropical wave about 400 miles off the west coast of Africa is moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph, with conditions favorable for a tropical depression next week.
  • According to official forecasts, the National Hurricane Center assigns a 30% chance of formation within 48 hours and an 80% chance over seven days, said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.
  • Despite veering north, the upper air pattern favors a northward turn, but significant beach impacts from strong swells are likely on East Coast beaches next week, according to Merrill.
  • Forecasters predict that by Thursday, Aug. 14, the system could reach hurricane status and a major hurricane by Aug. 16, as the Atlantic Basin nears its peak activity.

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Key points from the Right

  • Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands on Aug. 11, 2025, with sustained winds of 45 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
  • The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Erin is expected to strengthen and potentially reach hurricane status by Wednesday evening.
  • Residents along the southeastern coast are advised to monitor the storm's progress, as its future path remains uncertain, influenced by the Bermuda High's position and intensity.
  • Erin is the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which opened on June 1.

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Sources

  1. The New York Times
  2. NOAA
  3. National Hurricane Center via X
  4. Fox Weather