U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss a possible ceasefire to end the war in Ukraine. While few expect a final agreement to emerge, one major topic on the table is a potential land swap involving Russian-occupied territories.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began 3 1/2 years ago and cost Moscow an estimated 1 million casualties, according to Western assessments. Despite those losses, Russian forces continue to hold about 20% of Ukrainian territory, primarily in the east and south. This includes land seized in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea regions.
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Maps from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War show multiple layers of Russian occupation — from areas seized in 2014, to territory taken since the 2022 full-scale invasion, to additional land Moscow claims but does not currently control. Putin has repeatedly said he would not consider a ceasefire until Russia is granted all of the Donbas and what the Kremlin calls “Novorossiya” — or “New Russia.”
Zelenskyy’s position and legal hurdles
There are conflicting reports on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would agree to cede territory to Moscow. While Zelenskyy ruled out surrendering all land claimed by Russia, Western officials told The Telegraph he may be willing to freeze the front lines where they currently stand — effectively allowing Russia to retain control of areas it occupies.
Ukraine’s constitution bars ceding territory without a national referendum, which must first be authorized by parliament. Zelenskyy warned that Russia shows no signs of ending its offensive, noting troop movements consistent with preparations for new attacks.
Almost every European Union member country backed Kyiv’s stance that any settlement must be based on using the current front lines as a starting point for negotiations. Hungary was the lone holdout. Still, the bulk of Europe’s leaders said any deal between Russia and Ukraine must not legitimize territorial changes achieved by force.
US, European and NATO perspectives
Trump said he hopes to negotiate “some swapping, some changes to land” to get some territory back for Ukraine, but emphasized that Friday’s meeting will be a “feel-out” session. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stressed that while Russia may have de facto control over parts of Ukraine, the international community should not formally recognize such control.
European leaders plan to speak with Trump to reinforce their position ahead of the Alaska summit. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have also underscored that peace must be “built with Ukraine, not imposed upon it.”
For now, expectations for the summit are low. The White House described it as a listening session, with no immediate breakthrough anticipated. Even if progress is made, analysts say it’s unlikely any deal will grant Russia territory it doesn’t already occupy.
