As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the world is waiting to see whether President Donald Trump will authorize a United States military strike on Iran’s Fordo nuclear enrichment facility. The hardened site is buried beneath a mountain and has long been considered one of the most protected nuclear targets on the planet.
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The Bomb Question
Located near Qom, Iran, the Fordo facility’s main hall is around 260 feet below ground. There are other parts of the facility that Israel estimated to be 300 feet deep. Because of its depth, only one known conventional weapon could potentially reach it: the U.S.-made Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), also known as the GBU-57. But even then, it may not be enough.
While Israel’s Air Force is currently operating in Iranian airspace with limited resistance, only the United States possesses both the MOP and the B-2 bombers required to carry and deploy it, and success isn’t guaranteed.
According to reporting from the Guardian, Trump is not convinced the bunker-buster alone can do the job. Defense briefings presented by the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) reportedly concluded that even multiple MOPs may only collapse access tunnels and temporarily disable the site, not destroy it outright.
One former DTRA deputy director, retired Maj. Gen. Randy Manner, said of the GBU-57: “It might set the program back six months to a year.”
“It sounds good for TV, but it’s not real,” Manner said.
The Nuclear Non-Option
Despite some within the Department of Defense suggesting a tactical nuclear strike would be required to fully eliminate the facility, Trump is not considering that option and has not been briefed on it by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine, according to multiple sources.
The Fordo facility gained international attention when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed uranium enrichment levels there had reached 83.7%, which is dangerously close to the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon. U.S. and Israeli officials view taking Fordo offline as essential to curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Strategic Risks and Unknowns
Even if MOPs could be effectively deployed, there are still major hurdles: GPS jamming, radar defenses and the extreme precision needed for success. Any strike would require complete air superiority, something the U.S. is capable of establishing, but not without risk to aircraft and crew.
Meanwhile, Trump made clear he does not want to authorize a strike unless absolutely necessary and only as a last resort. That stance aligns with his campaign pledge to avoid new U.S. wars.
Still, the possibility of a broader regional war isn’t going away. Iran vowed to retaliate if the U.S. gets involved, likely targeting American personnel and assets in the region. The U.S. has already begun repositioning some forces in anticipation of potential retaliation. The Kremlin also cautioned against a U.S. strike on Iran, saying it could destabilize the region. Russia and Iran signed a defensive agreement in January, but so far, Russia isn’t taking an active role in Iran’s defense.
Another concern is Iran’s ability to choke off global oil supplies by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Around 25% of global oil supplies transit the strategic chokepoint every year, which is only 20 miles wide at its narrowest point.
Backchannel Diplomacy?
Despite public denials of interest in a ceasefire, some signs point to possible behind-the-scenes diplomacy. A plane often used by top Iranian officials recently landed in Muscat, Oman, according to data from an X account that monitors air traffic. The country has a history of mediating talks between Iran and the West.
It’s unclear whether the aircraft carried officials attempting to broker peace or was simply being moved out of harm’s way. However, the presence of that plane, along with other governmental aircraft, in Oman is fueling speculation that backchannel negotiations may already be underway.
