With Thanksgiving just days away, families are stocking up on turkey and all the fixings. But predicting what you’ll actually pay at the store can be surprisingly tricky.
Every year, universities, government agencies and industry groups release forecasts for holiday meal costs. Those numbers often don’t match, which can leave shoppers confused about what a turkey really costs.
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The reason: wholesale prices vs. retail prices.
Wholesale prices reflect what businesses pay when buying in bulk. Retail prices reflect what consumers pay at the grocery store – and those prices are heavily influenced by promotions, coupons, and holiday loss-leader deals.
Why estimates conflict
As Straight Arrow News previously reported, David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, found that turkey prices are up about 40% this year. He blamed outbreaks of avian influenza, which caused tighter supplies.
That 40%, though, is the wholesale price, not the retail price. Meaning, while turkeys overall are costing businesses more, consumers may not feel the same increase.
By contrast, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) says retail turkey prices are down 16% this year. That analysis focuses on what shoppers are paying in stores.
Holiday deals drive retail prices lower
AFBF attributes the drop to aggressive Thanksgiving sales. Supermarkets routinely slash turkey prices to attract customers – even offering free turkeys with qualifying purchases. Those holiday discounts aren’t captured in wholesale pricing.
Demand also plays a role. While farmers are still rebuilding turkey flocks after bird flu outbreaks, consumer demand has softened, putting additional downward pressure on retail prices.
“Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen,” said AFBF economist Faith Parum. “The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
Roughly 83% of stores are offering Thanksgiving specials this year, including some that are offering a free turkey with another purchase, the U.S. Department of Agriculture found.
