UK developing ‘predictive tool’ to determine if someone will become a killer

• The U.K. government is testing software to predict whether individuals will commit murder later in life. This initiative uses police and government data to create profiles and assess risk, but officials stress it’s for research and policy purposes, not for court use.
• Statewatch uncovered a data-sharing agreement revealing that the project involves information on up to 500,000 individuals.
• Critics argue that predictive tools based on biased data from the criminal justice system disproportionately affect low-income and minority communities.

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The Prime Minister’s Office in the U.K. is testing software designed to predict whether individuals will become killers later in life.

Predictive tool to determine future killers

The project is reminiscent of the 2002 film “Minority Report,” in which technology is used to forecast and potentially arrest individuals before they commit murder. In a similar vein, the Ministry of Justice is conducting the Homicide Prediction Project, which gathers data from police and government sources to create profiles and assess risk. The initiative is now referred to as Sharing Data to Improve Risk Assessment.

Statewatch, a U.K.-funded charity promoting research and investigative journalism, submitted a Freedom of Information request to learn more about the collaboration between the Ministry of Justice and police forces across the U.K.

The government explained the pilot program reviews offender characteristics and assists in determining homicide risk assessments. However, officials say the project is intended for research and policy development, not for use in the court system.

The program focuses on answering three key questions:

1. Can data science improve predictions of violent crime?
2. How can local police data improve accuracy in predicting serious violence?
3. And how can these tools help understand offender risk while encouraging more collaboration with local law enforcement?

Documents obtained by Statewatch reveal a data-sharing agreement that includes information on up to 500,000 individuals. The data covers a range of cases involving victims, witnesses, missing persons, suspects and individuals flagged as a danger to the public. Additionally, the project expands its system to include factors like mental health, addiction, suicide, disability and vulnerability.

The data dates back to before 2015 and includes demographic information such as age, gender and ethnicity.

Offender Assessment System used in UK as predictive tool

Predictive models, such as the Offender Assessment System used in England and Wales, are already in place to assess the risks of individuals in custody or on probation. However, a Ministry of Justice study found these algorithms were more accurate for white offenders and less effective for Black and mixed-ethnicity offenders.

Statewatch researchers argue such predictive tools are flawed because they rely on data from an inherently biased system, especially against low-income communities.

The 2023 government study, which aimed to improve predictions of serious reoffending, also highlighted ethnic bias within these predictive tools.

U.K. officials have stated that a report will be published assessing the system’s effectiveness for government use.