As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its fourth year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Western allies have begun shaping a vision for peace and long-term security. In early September, Zelenskyy announced that more than two dozen countries were exploring their roles in providing guarantees against future Russian aggression.
“What all European countries seeking to support and protect Ukraine face is the reality of the aftermath of decades of defense drawdowns in their own armed forces,” said Keir Giles, author of “Who Will Defend Europe?”
“It is only the easternmost states, the frontline states, that have taken seriously the need to rearm and rebuild their military potential. West of Warsaw, that task is still lying ahead of them,” he said.
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Talks in Paris focus on defense
About 30 Western leaders met with Zelenskyy in Paris on Sept. 4 to discuss commitments to bolster Ukraine’s defense following any potential truce with Russia. Giles emphasized that meaningful security guarantees must include serious military consequences for Russia if it launches future attacks.
“The question is whether European powers are willing either to build up Ukraine’s own armed forces in order to deliver that damage or to promise to deliver it themselves by means of an unshakeable and undoubted commitment to Ukraine’s future security,” Giles said.
Putin issues a warning
Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any Western troops deployed to Ukraine would be considered legitimate targets. Moscow has long claimed that one of its motivations for invading Ukraine was to prevent NATO from admitting Kyiv and placing forces within its borders.
“We have already heard suggestions from Moscow that it should be part of any future security package for Ukraine, in the same way that it was part of tnhe Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994,” Giles said. “There is no doubt that the vagueness of this term provides Russia with an opportunity to shape the narrative toward its own ends.”
US role in peacekeeping
A recent NBC News report outlined how the United States could play a lead role in monitoring a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia if a peace deal is reached. Giles noted that President Donald Trump’s involvement in the process added uncertainty.
“On the one hand, the fact that Donald Trump appears to be engaging with this process is encouraging,” Giles said. “On the other hand, it is entirely unclear what the United States might be willing to do in order to support future security guarantees for Ukraine.”
In August, Trump hosted Putin for a summit in Alaska, where he hand-delivered a letter from First Lady Melania Trump urging the Russian leader to return Ukrainian children abducted by Russian forces. Instead, Putin refused and ordered a strike on an American-linked factory in Ukraine.
So far, Moscow has shown no signs of softening its terms for ending the war or agreeing to direct talks with Ukrainian leadership.
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