
[Simone Del Rosario]
Let’s paint the picture. The U.S. puts tariffs on imported goods from around the world. Other countries retaliate by placing their own tariffs on U.S. goods. Stock markets face a deep sell-off as a global trade war builds. It sounds like today. But actually, I’m talking about what happened nearly a century ago.
Gary Richardson: A lot of things made the Great Depression great or terrible, and the tariffs were certainly one of those.
Simone Del Rosario: That’s not the way President Donald Trump tells it. He implies introducing the income tax in 1913 and lowering tariffs led to the Great Depression.
Donald Trump: Then in 1929, it all came to a very abrupt end with the Great Depression, and it would have never happened if they had stayed with the tariff policy, it would have been a much different story. They tried to bring back tariffs to save our country, but it was gone. It was gone. It was too late.
Gary Richardson: The Great Depression started in the U.S. because the Federal Reserve tightened interest rates too much, and then we’re on a gold standard, that spread that shock around the world. And things got worse in the U.S. and other countries, in part because we had a trade war in the middle of the Great Depression, which wasn’t a very smart thing to do.
Simone Del Rosario: For this look into history, we turned to Gary Richardson, an economics professor at UC Irvine.
Gary Richardson: My specialty is economic history. I work a lot on kind of recessions, depressions, financial crises, or reasons that the economy sometimes breaks down. I focus a lot on the Federal Reserve and I used to be the official historian for the Federal Reserve System.
Simone Del Rosario: Well, him, and Ben Stein.
Ferris Bueller’s Day Off clip: In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in effort to alleviate the effects of the, anyone, anyone, the Great Depression, passed the, anyone, anyone, the tariff bill, the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act.
Simone Del Rosario: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised tariffs on foreign agricultural products and manufactured goods by about 20%.
Senator Reed Smoot represented Utah; Congressman Willis Hawley, an Oregon lawmaker.
In the 1920s, their constituents, farmers, struggled to keep up with foreign competition post-World War I.
Gary Richardson: Smoot and Hawley had proposed several times before 1930 to for to have tariffs increased. And in 1930, the Great Depression started to roll. A lot of people were looking for easy solutions.
Simone Del Rosario: For Republicans Smoot and Hawley, it was their moment – a moment not without pushback. Most Democrats opposed the bill but it still had enough support to pass Congress.
Then came the pressure on President Herbert Hoover. Henry Ford spent a night at the White House pleading for Hoover to veto it. He reportedly called the bill “an economic stupidity.”
And more than a thousand economists across the country signed a letter warning Hoover of the consequences.
“We are convinced that increased restrictive duties would be a mistake. They would operate, in general, to increase the prices which domestic consumers would have to pay.”
“There are already many evidences that such action would inevitably provoke other countries to pay us back in kind by levying retaliatory duties against our goods.”
Hoover signed the bill anyway, and as predicted, other nations retaliated. International trade plummeted.
Ferris Bueller’s Day Off clip: Did it work? Anyone, anyone know the effects? It did not work and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.
Simone Del Rosario: Within two years of passing the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, Hoover lost his reelection campaign and Smoot and Hawley lost their seats in Congress.
Gary Richardson: Most of the fears of the opponents of the tariffs had been realized. I think that was very widely recognized by the late 30s, and, you know, by the 1940s when the US government and the governments around the world are negotiating the post war economic structure, right? There was, it was universally agreed then that these tariffs were a terrible idea.
Simone Del Rosario: Fast forward 80 years and high tariffs are back on the table.
Donald Trump: When we were smart, when we were a smart country, in the 1890s and all. This is when the country was relatively the richest it ever was. It had all tariffs. It didn’t have an income tax.
Gary Richardson: The tariffs were probably a sensible economic policy for the US in the 19th century. We really don’t want to go back to the 19th century. We’re living in the 21st Century. The technology is different, and, very importantly, our status in the world is very different.
Simone Del Rosario: So far, the reaction to Trump’s tariff policies is not much different than nearly a century ago. Economists say they will lead to higher prices. Nations threaten steep retaliatory levies. And the financial community warns the policies could cause a recession.
Gary Richardson: Everyone admits there are problems with the world economy and the world trading system, and we want to fix these problems. There’s almost no one who thinks that the tariffs as implemented by the Trump administration are a good idea.
Simone Del Rosario: The same day Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs took effect, the administration announced a 90-day pause on rates higher than 10% for everyone but China, one of America’s top trading partners. After a week of sell-offs, the markets breathed a sigh of relief.