- President Trump’s stance on Ukraine and European security marks a significant departure from past U.S. policy, leaving European leaders in shock. The Atlantic Council warns that Europe must strengthen its leverage with both the Trump administration and Russia to ensure its security.
- European nations are considering various responses: Italy could contribute its air force, France and the U.K. may send peacekeeping troops, and Poland and the Baltics are increasing defense spending. Germany, despite being Ukraine’s biggest supporter, faces military readiness challenges.
- The future of European security remains uncertain, but the U.S. administration has made it clear that Europe can no longer rely on American firepower for protection.
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on Ukraine, its defense against Russia and the future of European security vastly differs from his predecessors. For decades, the United States was the main force guaranteeing safety on the European continent, but in recent weeks, President Trump and his representatives have painted a very different picture.
The Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, calls this shift a wake-up call for Europe. In a recent post on its website, Atlantic Council experts describe the reactions from different countries and lay out possible responses European nations, and their militaries, might take in light of this new paradigm.
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While we can’t cover every reaction and recommendation, here are the highlights.
Shock among European leaders
According to the Atlantic Council, European leaders remain in a state of shock following remarks from U.S. leadership. For instance, President Trump recently stated Ukraine started the war. Trump also labeled its leader a “dictator” because there were no elections in the past three years.
For the sake of the truth: Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections during wartime, and if anyone in the world meets the definition of a dictator, it’s Vladimir Putin.
The Atlantic Council notes this separation from facts is leading many Europeans to question whether the U.S. is still an ally. To ensure Europe’s future security, the think tank argues European nations must strengthen their leverage with the Trump administration and Russia.
What are Europe’s possible responses?
The Atlantic Council suggests each country should play to its strengths.
Italy could use its air force to help secure Ukrainian airspace. While its army is stretched thin, Italy’s air force is relatively large and already conducting missions in the Baltics.
France and the U.K. both expressed openness to sending troops to Ukraine in a peacekeeping capacity. French President Emmanuel Macron is a longtime advocate for European “strategic autonomy.” The Atlantic Council believes he now has more leverage to push that argument.
The U.K. is grappling with concerns about replacing the international rules-based order with a “might is right” approach to diplomacy. The British government remains frustrated President Trump engaged directly with Putin while excluding Ukraine and other allies. However, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has a strong relationship with Trump. The Atlantic Council suggests it could be used to build bridges between the U.S. and Europe.
Germany is Ukraine’s biggest supporter in Europe, both financially and militarily. However, its own military readiness is in poor shape after years of underfunding. Unlike the U.K. and France, Germany does not possess nuclear weapons, making it more reliant on the U.S. for strategic deterrence.
If a call went out for European nations to send troops to Ukraine, Germany may not have forces readily available. This puts Germany in an awkward position as it navigates the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Poland and the Baltics push for defense spending
The Baltic states and Poland strongly support increased defense spending. Poland is the only European country allocating nearly 5% of its GDP to defense. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are also willing to meet that threshold. These nations want Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense, though the Baltic states still believe the U.S. should serve as the ultimate security guarantor.
Poland’s efforts to build up its military and reduce dependence on Russian oil earned it the title of “Model Ally” from U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. However, Poland’s prime minister said his country will not send troops to Ukraine. That would be a sensitive issue since the two nations fought a war in the early 20th century. To get around that issue, though, the Atlantic Council suggests Poland could send troops to Estonia, allowing British forces stationed there to be redeployed to Ukraine if necessary.
Clarity in the uncertainty
Will European nations need to send troops to Ukraine? At this point, no one knows for sure. However, one thing is clear: the current U.S. administration is firm in its stance that the days of Europeans relying on American firepower for protection are over.
