What the June jobs report tells us about the state of the economy
By Simone Del Rosario (Business Correspondent), Emma Stoltzfus (Editor), Mohammed Ali (Motion Graphics Designer), Ali Caldwell (Motion Graphics Designer)
The June jobs report came back a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the U.S. economy added slightly more jobs than expected at 206,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%.
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US economy adds 206,000 June jobs as labor market cools slightly
Click to see story on The GuardianJobs report today: Economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment at 4.1%
Click to see story on USA TodayUS labour market generates 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate increases to 4.1%
Click to see story on Hindustan TimesUS employers added a strong 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on abc NewsEconomy adds 206,000 jobs in June, reflecting continued resilience in labor market
Click to see story on The Washington PostUS employers added a solid 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Flin Flon ReminderEmployers added 206,000 jobs in June, as sturdy labor market gradually cools
Click to see story on NBC NewsThe U.S. economy created 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on El PaisUS hiring cools in June, unemployment up slightly — gov’t
Click to see story on InquirerJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on Koco News5US employers added a solid 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Prince George CitizenThe U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate ticks up
Click to see story on AxiosUS employers added a solid 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Bowen Island UndercurrentUS economy added 206,000 jobs in June, indicating a steady slowdown
Click to see story on KRDOU.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on CNBCUS economy adds 206K jobs in June
Click to see story on The HillEconomy added 206,000 jobs in June; jobless rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on UPIUS employers added a strong 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Washington Top NewsU.S. labour market cooling as unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in June
Click to see story on The Globe & MailU.S. adds 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on Pioneer PressJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WCVBJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WLWTJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WMURJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WLKYJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WESHJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WDSUJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WTAEJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WYFFJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KCCIJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KMBCJobs report for June: Payrolls increase by 206,000, beating forecast
Click to see story on MarketWatchJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WISNJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WBAL-TVJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WPTZJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WMTWJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WVTMUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on PIX 11June jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KOATUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WGN 9Jobs Report Today: Economy Added 206,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Edged Up to 4.1% — Live Updates
Click to see story on Wall Street JournalUS economy added 206,000 jobs in June, indicating a steady slowdown
Click to see story on KWWLUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WHNT 19 NewsUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WCBDUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WPRI 12June jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WPBFJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WGALUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June, higher than forecast
Click to see story on Financial TimesJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WXIIUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on KFOR-TVJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KSBWJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KHBSUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on Wood TVUS economy added 206,000 new jobs in June, outpacing historical norms, new data shows
Click to see story on Scripps NewsUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WATEUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WSAVUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WHO-DTUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WVNSUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on PHL17Economy added 206,000 jobs in June: The key facts and figures
Click to see story on Washington ExaminerUS economy added 206k jobs in June, unemployment rate increased to 4.1%
Click to see story on Just the NewsU.S. job growth slows moderately; unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on New Hampshire Union LeaderU.S. economy adds 206,000 jobs; April, May revised down
Click to see story on Fox BusinessUS Economy Adds 208,000 New Jobs, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 4.1 Percent
Click to see story on The Epoch TimesUS adds 206,000 jobs in June, more than estimates of 191,000
Click to see story on Anadolu AjansıUS job growth slows moderately; unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on OANRight
Untracked Bias
US unemployment rate rises slightly to 4.1%
Click to see story on Noticias ao MinutoThe US economy creates 206,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.1%
Click to see story on Quotidiano NazionaleThe unemployment rate in the U.S. rises to 4.1% in June 2024.
Click to see story on El ComercioJune jobs report: US labor market set to show ‘cooling but not cool’ trend continues
Click to see story on Europe SaysThe US adds 206,000 jobs in June but the unemployment rate reaches 4.1%
Click to see story on El Tiempo LatinoEconomy Added 206,000 Jobs In June
Click to see story on Western Iowa Today 96.5 KSOM KS 95.7US labor market cooling as unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on Blue Water Healthy LivingIt’s the first time the unemployment rate has been above 4% since late 2021. Analysts had expected unemployment to stay at 4% and anticipated around 200,000 jobs added.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the previous two months’ jobs data. April was revised down by 57,000 while May was revised down by 54,000, a combined 111,000 fewer jobs over two months.
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“The big downward revisions to April and May are the story,” Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones said on X. “Job market is slowing down.”
Historically, an unemployment rate of around 4.1% is strong. But since the economy has been below that for 2.5 years and reached a five-decade low of 3.4% unemployment in 2023, the upward trend is catching attention.
The Federal Reserve last projected unemployment would be at 4% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025, so already exceeding that 2024 number makes a rate cut look all the more likely. The Fed is now projecting one rate cut this year. The market is betting the Fed will hold steady for its July meeting and cut in September.
Back in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there are two paths to cutting rates.
“That we do gain greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% and another path could be unexpected weakening in the labor market, so those are paths in which you could see us cutting rates,” Powell said.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows prices rose 2.6% annually in May. The more widely-cited consumer price index shows a 3.3% rise in prices. Meanwhile, wages are outpacing inflation, rising 3.9% over 12 months in June, though the pace of wage gains is slowing.
While the latest jobs data still shows a robust labor market, it is softening from its status as one of the strongest labor markets in history.
An unemployment rate between 4%-5% is considered “full employment,” which is when a country’s available labor is being used in the most efficient way.
Full employment does not mean zero unemployment. Economists believe there needs to be some level of unemployment to minimize inflation and allow people to move between jobs, pursue education or improve job skills. The idea of full employment is that people looking for full-time work should be able to find it, although it might not be their preferred job.
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But initial unemployment claims are trending up and the number of people who are unemployed for more than half a year is also climbing. More than a fifth of the unemployed fall under that category, while the median amount of time people are unemployed is nearly 10 weeks. One year ago, it was 6.4 weeks.
Simone Del Rosario: June’s jobs report came back a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the U.S. economy added slightly more jobs than expected at 206,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. That’s the first time unemployment’s been above 4% since late 2021. Analysts had expected unemployment to stay at 4%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the previous two months’ jobs data. April was revised down by 57,000 while May was revised down by 54,000, a combined 111,000 fewer jobs over two months.
Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones said: The big downward revisions to April and May are the story. Job market is slowing down.
Historically, the unemployment rate around 4.1% is very strong. But since we’ve been below that for 2.5 years and reached a 5-decade low of 3.4% unemployment last year, the upward trend is definitely catching attention.
The Federal Reserve last projected unemployment would be at 4% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025, so already exceeding that 2024 number makes a rate cut look all the more likely. The Fed is now projecting one rate cut this year. The market is betting the Fed will hold steady for its July meeting and cut in September.
Back in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there are two paths to cutting rates.
Jerome Powell: That we do gain greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% and another path could be unexpected weakening in the labor market, so those are paths in which you could see us cutting rates.
Simone Del Rosario: I’d categorize what we’re seeing as definite softening, but softening from one of the strongest labor markets in history.
An unemployment rate between 4-5% is considered “full employment,” when a country’s available labor is being used in the most efficient way.
Full employment does not mean zero unemployment. Economists believe there needs to be some level of unemployment to minimize inflation and allow people to move between jobs, pursue education or improve their skills.
The idea of full employment is that people looking for full-time work should be able to find it, although it might not be their preferred job.
But we are finding initial unemployment claims are trending up, and the number of people who are unemployed for more than half a year is also climbing. More than a fifth of the unemployed fall under that category, while the median amount of time people are unemployed is nearly 10 weeks.
I’m SDR for SAN.
Media Landscape
See who else is reporting on this story and which side of the political spectrum they lean. To read other sources, click on the plus signs below. Learn more about this dataBias Distribution
Left
US economy adds 206,000 June jobs as labor market cools slightly
Click to see story on The GuardianJobs report today: Economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment at 4.1%
Click to see story on USA TodayUS labour market generates 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate increases to 4.1%
Click to see story on Hindustan TimesUS employers added a strong 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on abc NewsEconomy adds 206,000 jobs in June, reflecting continued resilience in labor market
Click to see story on The Washington PostUS employers added a solid 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Flin Flon ReminderEmployers added 206,000 jobs in June, as sturdy labor market gradually cools
Click to see story on NBC NewsThe U.S. economy created 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on El PaisUS hiring cools in June, unemployment up slightly — gov’t
Click to see story on InquirerJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on Koco News5US employers added a solid 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Prince George CitizenThe U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate ticks up
Click to see story on AxiosUS employers added a solid 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Bowen Island UndercurrentUS economy added 206,000 jobs in June, indicating a steady slowdown
Click to see story on KRDOU.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on CNBCUS economy adds 206K jobs in June
Click to see story on The HillEconomy added 206,000 jobs in June; jobless rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on UPIUS employers added a strong 206,000 jobs in June in a sign of continued economic strength
Click to see story on Washington Top NewsU.S. labour market cooling as unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in June
Click to see story on The Globe & MailU.S. adds 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on Pioneer PressJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WCVBJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WLWTJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WMURJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WLKYJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WESHJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WDSUJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WTAEJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WYFFJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KCCIJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KMBCJobs report for June: Payrolls increase by 206,000, beating forecast
Click to see story on MarketWatchJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WISNJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WBAL-TVJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WPTZJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WMTWJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WVTMUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on PIX 11June jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KOATUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WGN 9Jobs Report Today: Economy Added 206,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Edged Up to 4.1% — Live Updates
Click to see story on Wall Street JournalUS economy added 206,000 jobs in June, indicating a steady slowdown
Click to see story on KWWLUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WHNT 19 NewsUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WCBDUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WPRI 12June jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WPBFJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WGALUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June, higher than forecast
Click to see story on Financial TimesJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on WXIIUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on KFOR-TVJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KSBWJune jobs report indicates cooling labor market, potential for lower interest rates
Click to see story on KHBSUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on Wood TVUS economy added 206,000 new jobs in June, outpacing historical norms, new data shows
Click to see story on Scripps NewsUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WATEUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WSAVUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WHO-DTUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on WVNSUS economy adds 206,000 jobs in June
Click to see story on PHL17Economy added 206,000 jobs in June: The key facts and figures
Click to see story on Washington ExaminerUS economy added 206k jobs in June, unemployment rate increased to 4.1%
Click to see story on Just the NewsU.S. job growth slows moderately; unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on New Hampshire Union LeaderU.S. economy adds 206,000 jobs; April, May revised down
Click to see story on Fox BusinessUS Economy Adds 208,000 New Jobs, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 4.1 Percent
Click to see story on The Epoch TimesUS adds 206,000 jobs in June, more than estimates of 191,000
Click to see story on Anadolu AjansıUS job growth slows moderately; unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
Click to see story on OANRight
Untracked Bias
US unemployment rate rises slightly to 4.1%
Click to see story on Noticias ao MinutoThe US economy creates 206,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.1%
Click to see story on Quotidiano NazionaleThe unemployment rate in the U.S. rises to 4.1% in June 2024.
Click to see story on El ComercioJune jobs report: US labor market set to show ‘cooling but not cool’ trend continues
Click to see story on Europe SaysThe US adds 206,000 jobs in June but the unemployment rate reaches 4.1%
Click to see story on El Tiempo LatinoEconomy Added 206,000 Jobs In June
Click to see story on Western Iowa Today 96.5 KSOM KS 95.7US labor market cooling as unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
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