What Ukraine’s Kursk incursion means for the war: Weapons and Warfare

Sep 11, 2024 at 03:00 AM CDT

Senior fellows from the Center for European Policy Analysis assess what Ukraine’s Kursk offensive means for Russia’s illegal war. — Image credit: Reuters

This week on Weapons and Warfare, the team takes a look at Ukraine’s switch from defense to offense with their incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. Host Ryan Robertson visited with some senior fellows from the Center for European Policy Analysis to get their assessment of what Ukraine’s offensive means for the next phase of Russia’s illegal war.

QR code for SAN app download

Download the Straight Arrow app today to get the stories that matter free from manipulation, bias or agenda.™

Point phone camera here

Also featured in this episode:

The Air Force announced major exercise planned for the Pacific.
The Army inked a deal for more M10 Booker combat assault vehicles.
History made when Army lieutenant earned their third tab.
Weapon of the Week: Anduril’s Ghost Shark comes to the U.S.

You can subscribe to the Weapons and Warfare podcast on the platform of your choosing here.

Ryan Robertson is the anchor of the Straight Arrow News video podcast Weapons and Warfare. He wore many hats in his career — from photographer to news director — and firmly believes honest journalism will save our Republic.

Tags: Kursk, Russia, Russian Defense Ministry, Ukraine, Ukraine aid, Ukraine Defense Ministry

Make SAN preferred on Google Show Transcript

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
HELLO AND WELCOME TO WEAPONS AND WARFARE, FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS I’M YOUR HOST RYAN ROBERTSON, AND WE HAVE A LOT PACKED INTO THIS WEEK’S EPISODE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
NOW THAT UKRAINE HAS FLIPPED THE SCRIPT ON RUSSIA, WHAT’S NEXT IN VLADIMIR PUTIN’S ILLEGAL WAR. FOR THAT AND MORE WE CHECK IN WITH SOME OF THE EXPERTS AT THE CENTER FOR EUROPEAN POLICY ANALYSIS, FOR THEIR THOUGHTS ON UKRAINE’S RUSSIAN INCURSION.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
PLUS, MORE NEW TECH FROM THE GANG AT ANDURIL. WE TAKE A CLOSE UP LOOK AT THE GHOST SHARK AS IT GETS PREPPED FOR A MAJOR EXERCISE IN THE PACIFIC.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
AND WE CHECK-IN WITH A NATO ALLY THAT GETS AN UP CLOSE LOOK AT THEIR BRAND NEW FIFTH-GENERATION RIDE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
BUT FIRST, SOME HEADLINES YOU MAY HAVE MISSED.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
NEXT SUMMER WILL BE A BUSY ONE FOR THE AIR FORCE IN THE PACIFIC. THAT’S AFTER AIR FORCE CHIEF OF STAFF, GENERAL DAVID ALLVIN, ANNOUNCED A LARGE-SCALE COMBAT EXERCISE CALLED REFORPAC. THE GOAL IS TO TEST A SERIES OF SERVICE CHANGING CONCEPTS THAT WERE ANNOUNCED IN FEBRUARY. SPECIFICALLY OPERATING FROM REMOTE LOCATIONS WITH NEW FORCE STRUCTURES.

[Gen. David Allvin, Chief of Staff, USAF]
“We’re integrating it into INDOPACOM’s campaign plans and our Pacific Air Forces‘ approach to supporting those. And so we’re integrating it into the combatant commander’s piece, but we’re doing it in a way that’s more robust, and it’s for a longer period of time. So, we will be deploying from Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, the continental United States, and it’s going to be for about 14 days overall.”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
AIR FORCE LEADERSHIP SEES THE EXERCISE AS A VITAL PIECE IN PREPARING FOR ANY POTENTIAL CONFLICT WITH CHINA.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
THE NAME REFORPAC HAS ROOTS IN THE COLD WAR ERA, RECALLING THE ONCE ANNUAL EXERCISE KNOWN AS REFORGER, STANDING FOR RETURN OF FORCES TO GERMANY. ONLY NOW IT’S IN THE PACIFIC, RATHER THAN EUROPE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
SOME NEW HARDWARE HEADING THE ARMY’S WAY.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
THAT’S AFTER GENERAL DYNAMICS LAND SYSTEMS ANNOUNCED THEY HAVE BEEN AWARDED A NEARLY $323 MILLION CONTRACT FOR CONTINUED PRODUCTION OF THE M-10 BOOKER, A NEW ASSAULT VEHICLE FOR THE ARMY’S INFANTRY BRIGADE COMBAT TEAMS.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
THE BOOKER OPERATES WITH A FOUR-PERSON CREW AND FEATURES AN ENHANCED THERMAL VIEWER, A LARGE-CALIBER CANNON, A LIGHTWEIGHT HULL AND TURRET, AND A MODERN DIESEL ENGINE, TRANSMISSION AND SUSPENSION SYSTEM. BY THE END OF THE DEAL THE ARMY WILL HAVE 504 BOOKERS IN ITS INVENTORY, ALL WILL BE SENT TO LIGHT COMBAT DIVISIONS IN THE ACTIVE DUTY AND NATIONAL GUARD.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
FINALLY, SOME HISTORY WAS MADE WHEN ARMY FIRST LIEUTENANT MACKENZIE CORCORAN, A HAWAII-BASED COMBAT ENGINEER, BECAME ‘TRIPLE-TABBED’ AFTER COMPLETING THREE OF THE ARMY’S MOST DEMANDING COURSES, RANGER SCHOOL, SAPPER SCHOOL, AND A HAWAII-BASED JUNGLE COURSE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
EARNING ALL THREE IS RARE FOR ANY SOLDIER, AND QUITE POSSIBLY UNPRECEDENTED FOR A WOMAN.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
SINCE EARNING HER COMMISSION IN 2021, CORCORAN HAS COMPLETED THE 12-DAY JUNGLE OPERATIONS COURSE, AS WELL AS BECOMING JUST THE EIGHTH WOMAN TO COMPLETE THE 28-DAY SAPPER SCHOOL AND THE 135TH WOMAN TO GRADUATE FROM THE 62-DAY RANGER COURSE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
WHILE THE ARMY HASN’T CLARIFIED IF ANY OTHER WOMEN HAVE EARNED ALL THREE TABS, THERE’S NO DOUBT CONGRATULATIONS ARE IN ORDER.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
A LITTLE MORE THAN A MONTH AGO, THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY SERVED THE KREMLIN NOTICE THEY WEREN’T AFRAID TO TAKE THE FIGHT TO RUSSIA ON RUSSIAN SOIL. THE OFFENSIVE PUSH INTO KURSK OBLAST NO DOUBT CAUGHT VLADIMIR PUTIN AND THE REST OF THE WORLD BY SURPRISE. AT THE TIME OF THIS RECORDING, RUSSIA WAS STILL LOOKING TO FIND ITS FOOTING IN MUSTERING A VIABLE DEFENSE AGAINST THE UKRAINIAN INCURSION.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
WE RECENTLY HAD A CHANCE TO SIT IN ON A SESSION WITH THE CENTER FOR EUROPEAN POLICY ANALYSIS, OR CEPA, AND GET THEIR THOUGHTS ON UKRAINE’S OFFENSIVE, WHAT IT MEANS FOR RUSSIAN TROOPS ON THE GROUND AND HOW THIS PHASE OF THE WAR COULD BE A DEFINING MOMENT.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
IN LATE AUGUST, UKRAINE’S AIRBORNE ASSAULT TROOPS RELEASED A VIDEO SAID TO SHOW SCENES FROM WITHIN RUSSIA’S KURSK REGION. THE FOOTAGE ALSO SHOWS RUSSIAN TROOPS APPARENTLY SURRENDERING TO THE UKRAINIANS. A SCENE ANALYST, NICO LANGE, SAYS IS PROMPTING LARGER CONVERSATIONS BY BOTH THOSE IN THE FIGHT AND WATCHING FROM AFAR.

[Nico Lange, Senior Fellow, CEPA]
“The longer this goes on, the more questions will be there, what to do with the local population, how to organize the continued work of the villages and cities that are now in the Ukrainian military sphere of influence, because the city administrations, by and large, ran away. The Russians plundered their own shops. This will last for a few days, but what will come after? I just want to say there are from the for the Ukrainian military. There are difficult questions to be answered.”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
FOR THE FIRST TIME, SOME OF THOSE QUESTIONS COULD BE COMING FROM RUSSIAN CITIZENS. WHILE PUTIN CAN KEEP THE NEWS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS DYING IN UKRAINE BY THE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OUT OF RUSSIAN MEDIA, IT’S A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT WHEN THE FIGHT IS INSIDE RUSSIA’S BORDERS.

[Nico Lange, Senior Fellow, CEPA]
“Ukraine seizing the initiative in the information space in general. I think that’s the biggest success of this offensive so far, it changes everything, because in German media, like in other European media, it’s about cost. Now it’s about Russia bombing its own cities. It’s about Ukraine putting pressure and creating problems for Putin.”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
SIGNS OF THAT PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN IN REPORTING BY THE INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATIVE RUSSIAN OUTLET ‘IMPORTANT STORIES’ WHICH FIRST DETAILED PUTIN’S DECISION TO SEND PATCHWORK UNITS COMPRISED, AT LEAST IN PART, WITH LOGISTICS COMPANIES, ENGINEERS, MECHANICS, AND RADAR STATION OPERATORS TO THE FIGHT IN KURSK.

[Nico Lange, Senior Fellow, CEPA]
“That’s the reason why they have all sorts of radar troops, conscripts, troops that belong to the Ministry of Interior, interior now in Kursk Oblast, the problem with them is that they are not faced with light Ukrainian units. This is Ukrainian brigades, mechanized, some of them heavily combat experienced. So the Russians, very often we see them surrendering because this is something they are not able to deal with, especially not conscripts.”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
IN LIGHT OF THAT FACT, RUSSIA IS SCRAMBLING TO FIND THE TROOPS NEEDED TO MAINTAIN THEIR PUSH INTO EASTERN UKRAINE WHILE MITIGATING THE UKRAINIAN INCURSION INTO THE KURK REGION. YET IN JUNE, PUTIN BOASTED OF HAVING 700,000 SOLDIERS IN THE FIGHT. SOMETHING PAVEL LUZIN NOW SAYS SEEMS LIKE WISHFUL THINKING AT BEST.

[Pavel Luzin, Senior Fellow, CEPA]
“Now they’re trying to find several 1000 troops to counteract Ukrainian forces in Kursk Region. What does it mean? That means that this 700,000 troops do not exist, and that means Russia faces lack of manpower.”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
AND STILL, AFTER MORE THAN 900 DAYS OF WAR, NEITHER SIDE IS SHOWING ANY SIGN OF LETTING UP OR MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
SO WHAT WILL BE THE NEXT PRESSURE POINT? IF THINGS HOLD AS THEY ARE, IT’S LIKELY WEATHER WILL BE A FACTOR. IN PARTICULAR, WINTER WEATHER.

[Nico Lange, Senior Fellow, CEPA]
“I think it’s very likely that a large Russian contingent will be outside of Porkovsk and outside of Toros Toretsk on the open field, while the Ukrainians, they might the cities might be in ruins and inhabitants evacuated, but they will be in the city. And that makes in winter, that makes a decisive difference if you have to be out there, or if you are in a place that is urban. So Russia will have the harder time on the battlefield,”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
BUT THAT IS MONTHS AWAY, AND THINGS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SHIFT ON A REGULAR BASIS. FOR EXAMPLE, IN LATE AUGUST, THE INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR RELEASED A MAP SHOWING RUSSIA HAD BEGUN TO RECLAIM SOME OF WHAT WAS LOST IN KURSK. WHETHER THEY CAN CONTINUE TO HOLD IT IS THE MOST RECENT QUESTION IN A WAR FILLED WITH VERY FEW ANSWERS.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
IN TERMS OF THINGS PEOPLE ARE AFRAID OF, GHOSTS AND SHARKS ARE MOST CERTAINLY ON A LOT OF SHORT LISTS. NOW, I DON’T KNOW IF THAT’S WHAT DEFENSE CONTRACTOR ANDURIL HAD IN MIND WHEN CAME TO NAMING THEIR ADVANCED EXTRA-LARGE AUTONOMOUS UNDERSEA VEHICLE, BUT IT CERTAINLY CAUGHT OUR EYE, AND THAT’S WHY IT’S OUR WEAPON OF THE WEEK.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
MEET THE GHOST SHARK. A PRODUCT OF A 2022 AGREEMENT BETWEEN ANDURIL AUSTRALIA, THE ROYAL AUSTRALIAN NAVY, AND THE DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY GROUP.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
THE GOAL IS TO DEVELOP AN UNDERWATER DRONE CAPABLE OF PROVIDING A VARIETY OF MISSION SETS, CHIEF AMONG WHICH IS SURVEILLANCE. AND IF THE NAME ISN’T SCARY, ITS CAPABILITIES LIKELY WILL BE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
WHILE SPECIFICS HAVE NOT YET BEEN PROVIDED, WE DO KNOW THE GHOST SHARK IS BASED ON THE ‘DIVE L-D’ SUBMERSIBLE, DEVELOPED BY DIVE TECHNOLOGIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY ACQUIRED BY ANDURIL.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
FOR REFERENCE, THE DIVE-L-D CAN RUN AUTONOMOUSLY UNDERWATER FOR TEN DAYS AND CAN REACH DEPTHS OF NEARLY 20,000 FEET.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
ANDURIL IS USING TECHNOLOGY FROM ITS PROPRIETARY A-U-V CAPABILITY AND ITS LATTICE A-I-POWERED SOFTWARE PLATFORM TO DEVELOP GHOST SHARK.

[Rear Admiral Peter Quinn, Head of Navy Capability, Royal Australian Navy]
“Make no mistake, extra large, autonomous undersea vessels will be a game changer. They will provide militaries with a persistent option for the delivery of underwater effects in high risk environments, complementing our existing crewed ships and submarines, as well as our future uncrewed surface vessels,”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
DESIGNED TO SUPPORT SUB-SEA MARITIME MISSIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. THE GHOST SHARK IS A MODULAR, MULTI-PURPOSE PLATFORM THAT CAN ADAPT TO MISSION NEEDS AND SERVE AS A FORCE MULTIPLIER.

[Professor Emily Hilder, Chief Platforms, Defence Science And Technology Group]
“The reason that we need new and emerging technology is so that we can create strategic surprise, but also so that we can avoid strategic surprise”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
WITH AN INITIAL ORDER OF THREE PROTO-TYPES TO BE BUILT OVER THREE YEARS, THE FIRST GHOST SHARK WAS DELIVERED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND ON BUDGET.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
AND NOW, THE SECOND PROTOTYPE HAS ARRIVED IN AMERICA. AN ARRIVAL THAT COINCIDED WITH THE RIM OF THE PACIFIC EXERCISE, ALSO KNOWN AS RIMPAC. ACCORDING TO THE U-S NAVY, IT IS ONE OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST MARITIME EXERCISES HELD BIANNUALLY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF SEA LANES AND SECURITY ON THE WORLD’S OCEANS.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
ACCORDING TO ANDURIL, THIS WILL GROW THE TEST ENVELOPE FOR GHOST SHARK BY ENABLING TESTING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE PACIFIC THAT’S AVAILABLE FOR COLLABORATION WITH U.S. GOVERNMENT PARTNERS.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
A DEVELOPMENT THAT SHOULD MAKE THE GHOST SHARK PLENTY SCARY FOR ANY WOULD-BE ADVERSARY.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
TIME NOW FOR COMMS CHECK, AND IN APRIL, ‘WEAPONS AND WARFARE’ WAS FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO GO BEHIND THE SCENES OF THE LOCKHEED MARTIN F-35 ASSEMBLY FACILITY IN FORT WORTH, TEXAS TO SEE HOW AMERICA’S PREMIER FIGHTER JET IS PUT TOGETHER. A STORY WE WERE ABLE TO BRING YOU IN JULY.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
ONE THING WE SAW BUT WEREN’T ABLE TO SHOW YOU WAS POLAND’S FIRST F-35 DURING ITS ASSEMBLY. WELL, AS THE SAYING GOES, GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
ON AUGUST 28TH, POLAND’S AIR FORCE AND THE WORLD GOT A LOOK AT THEIR NEW FIFTH-GENERATION FIGHTER.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
FOUR YEARS AFTER INKING A DEAL WORTH $4.6 BILLION, POLAND’S FIRST OF 32 F-35As ROLLED OFF THE LINE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
WHILE THE U-S CALLS THE F-35 THE LIGHTNING TWO, POLAND IS GOING WITH “HUSARZ,” MEANING “HUSSAR,” DRAWING INSPIRATION FROM THEIR CAVALRY UNITS THAT WERE ACTIVE FROM THE 16TH CENTURY TO THE EARLY 18TH CENTURY.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
EVEN THOUGH THE DEAL WAS DONE TWO YEARS BEFORE RUSSIA’S FULL-BLOWN INVASION OF UKRAINE, POLAND, LIKE THE REST OF THE WORLD, WATCHED IN 2014 AS RUSSIA FIRST INVADED CRIMEA. A FACT NOT LOST ON ONE OF POLAND’S DEPUTY NATIONAL DEFENSE MINISTER, CEZARY TOMCZYK.

[Cezary Tomczyk, Deputy National Defense Minister]
“Poland is the only country in the world that shares borders with Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. To keep the borders unchanged, we need the best equipment, the best capability, and the best friends.”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
ACCORDING TO A RELEASE FROM LOCKHEED MARTIN, THE FIRST AIRCRAFT, DESIGNATED AZ-01, WILL BE DELIVERED TO THE POLISH AIR FORCE IN DECEMBER AND WILL BE BASED AT EBBING AIR NATIONAL GUARD BASE, ARKANSAS, WHERE POLAND WILL BE THE FIRST INTERNATIONAL CUSTOMER TO CONDUCT F-35 PILOT TRAINING AS MORE OF POLAND’S F-35S ROLL OFF THE LINE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]
THE F-35s ARE EXPECTED TO START ARRIVING IN POLAND IN 2026, MAKING POLAND THE FIRST EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRY TO OPERATE THEM, WITH THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND ROMANIA EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT.

A COUPLE WEEKS AGO ON THE SHOW–WE HAD A STORY ABOUT F-16S ARRIVING IN UKRAINE…AND IN THAT STORY, THERE WAS A UKRAINIAN PILOT NAMED OLEKSII MES–CALLSIGN MOONFISH.

HE WAS ONE OF THE FIRST UKRAINIAN PILOTS TRAINED TO FLY F-16S–

AND HE WAS IN THE COCKPIT ON AUGUST 26TH WHEN RUSSIA UNLEASHED THE LARGEST AERIAL ATTACK AGAINST UKRAINE SINCE THE START OF THE WAR.

MOONFISH WAS KILLED DEFENDING HIS COUNTRY AGAINST THE ONSLAUGHT.

TOO OFTEN IN THIS WAR–IN ANY WAR–WHEN WE HEAR SETS OF DATA LIKE SQUARE MILES TAKEN, OR VILLAGES SEIZED, OR THE NUMBER OF TROOPS LOST–

IT’S EASIER TO TALK ABOUT IT IF WE SANITIZE IT—IF WE REMOVE THE HUMANITY FROM THE EQUATION.

BUT EVERY SQUARE MILE TAKEN, MEANS MORE PEOPLE’S HOMES AND BUSINESS ARE IN DANGER.

EVERY VILLAGE SEIZED IS A COMMUNITY CUT OFF.

EVERY TROOP LOSS IS A PERSON WHO WILL NOT COME HOME.

OLEKSII MES HELPS US REMEMBER THAT. BECAUSE HE WAS WILLING TO OPEN UP TO THE WORLD AND SHARE HIS STORY…HE PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE THE TRUE COST OF CONFLICT. PEOPLE’S LIVES.

WHICH IS WHY IT’S LONG PAST TIME FOR THE UNITED STATES AND EVERY ALLY UKRAINE HAS TO LIFT THE RESTRICTIONS ON UKRAINE USING DONATED ARMS TO HIT TARGETS DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA–NOT TO STRIKE AT CIVILIANS, LIKE THE KREMLIN IS DOING–BUT TO TAKE OUT THE MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE RUSSIA USES TO PERPETUATE ITS ILLEGAL, IMMORAL AND UNPROVOKED WAR AGAINST UKRAINE.

THERE MAY BE MONETARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE U-S, BUT RIGHT NOW, IT’S UKRAINE BEARING THE TRUE COSTS OF DEFEATING ONE OF AMERICA’S OLDEST AND STAUNCHEST ENEMIES.

THAT’S GOING TO DO IT FOR US HERE AT WEAPONS AND WARFARE. WANT TO THANK YOU ONCE AGAIN FOR WATCHING. PLEASE LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE TO OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FEEDS, AND DON’T FORGET TO TELL YOUR FRIENDS ABOUT US.

FOR SENIOR PRODUCER BRETT BAKER, VIDEO EDITOR BRIAN SPENCER, AND GRAPHICS ARTIST DAKOTA PITEO…I’M RYAN ROBERTSON, WITH STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, SIGNING OFF.

Media

3 hrs ago

10m read

Inside the online video game that lures young people to a Russian drone factory
Social Issues

6 hrs ago

1m read

Death toll continues to rise following major earthquake in Colombia
Politics

9 hrs ago

8m read

Iran denies Trump’s ‘semi-negotiating’ claim; Netanyahu rejects Gaza peace plan
Social Issues

9 hrs ago

2m read

As wildfires burn across the West, crews progress around hard-hit Spokane