The official start of winter is still weeks away, but you can start preparing for it now using predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. It recently published an outlook for December, January and February.
The three-month outlook shows southern states, parts of the East Coast, along with Florida and California, will see warmer and drier temperatures than normal. However, a “pattern shift” in late January or early February might lead to “significant cold air” in Texas and the Gulf Coast, raising the risk of snow and ice, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
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Northern and Midwestern states will likely see below average temps, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
In the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Great Plains, there is expected to be above-average levels of precipitation. Pastelok said to expect an “intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic.”
AccuWeather, which recently published its own forecast, wrote the biggest storms will likely happen in the very first and last weeks of the season. Early on, these storms will go from Canada to the Midwest, then to the mid-Atlantic and New England. These systems will shift from the Plains and Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, Midwest and Northeast by the time late winter arrives, AccuWeather wrote.
What’s behind these weather conditions?
Scientists at the National Weather Service say La Niña, which started in September and is “favored to persist” through February, causes this wintry weather. La Niña is the cool phase of a natural climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
While La Niña is considered a weak event, Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch of the Climate Prediction Center, told USA Today its impact is strongest in winter, which is why it plays a large role in outlooks.
A “warm blob of Pacific Ocean water” off the West Coast is also affecting winter conditions, USA Today wrote.
Gottschalck said to the news outlet that “there could be a potential influence from the large area of north Pacific ocean sea-surface temperatures, which at the current time are considerably above average.”
