Gamblers are upset after the wagering website Polymarket refused to pay out bets on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela. The site claims America’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro did not actually qualify as an invasion.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is what’s known as a prediction market.
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It’s a gambling platform where people are allowed to place bets on a range of different subjects including politics, sports and more.
Here’s a look at the top row of betting subjects on the website today, ranging from a U.S. takeover of Greenland to potential charges against the ICE agent who killed a woman in Minneapolis.
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission granted Polymarket regulatory approval to operate in the U.S. last year. The website had withdrawn from the U.S. in 2022 before restructuring to comply with U.S. regulations.
Venezuela bets
Gamblers have bet more than $10 million on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela, with most of those bets setting an invasion deadline of January 31.
Those who bet yes thought they were in the money when the U.S. removed Maduro and President Donald Trump announced America would be running Venezuela.
However, Polymarket said that doesn’t count as an invasion.
“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control,” Polymarket noted on their website. “President Trump’s statement that they will ‘run’ Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
Upset bettors
Those who wagered on an invasion taking place were not happy with that decision from Polymarket.
“Polymarket has descended into pure arbitrariness,” a user called ImNoob wrote on the market site. “Terms are redefined at will, divorced from any recognized meaning, while facts are utterly disregarded. That military invasion, the abduction of a head of state, and the occupation of a country are not classified as an invasion is utterly absurd.”
The technical definition of an invasion is defined by Merriam-Webster as an “incursion of an army for conquest or plunder.”
Bettors believe what the U.S. did in Venezuela falls under that category.
“That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd,” a user called Skinner wrote.
There’s still a chance these bettors can win since the Jan. 31 deadline has not yet passed, nor have the later deadlines.
Insider trading?
While those who bet on an invasion may not be able to cash in just yet, someone has already cashed in big on Maduro’s capture.
A user put $30,000 on Maduro’s exit and quickly made over $400,000, leading some to speculate if this was just a lucky guess or someone had inside knowledge of the White House’s plans.
That wager led to proposed legislation from Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. That bill would ban government employees from making trades on prediction markets using nonpublic information.
Meanwhile, Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. is now an adviser for Polymarket and its rival Kalshi.
