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In 2023, India surpassed China as the most populous country, and is expected to continue growing over the next several decades. Meanwhile, China’s population peaked at 1.4 billion and then began shrinking. China’s population is projected to decrease to 1.3 billion by 2050 or even 770 million by 2100.
Watch the video above as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains the challenges facing China’s economy, particularly how its shrinking demographics will prevent the country from experiencing significant “consumption-led growth” again.
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Excerpted from Peter’s Aug. 6 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Lesson of the day: If the Chinese government starts censoring a topic, it’s probably time to start looking into that. Today, we’ll be examining China’s economy heading into ‘garbage time’.
For the non-athletes that follow me, garbage time is a sports term that refers to the final minutes of a play when there is no chance for the losing team to recover, yet play must continue. So, if we apply that to the Chinese economy, it would suggest that China has crossed the point of no return.
If you trust the data coming out of China, the economy is stagnant and the demographic picture is grim. If you take your Chinese data with a grain of salt, the economy and demography of China are in a unrecoverable nose dive. So, to say that China is “laying flat” and in “garbage time” is no exaggeration.
If there was anything that might help China hold on, it would be strong international trade. Unfortunately, many countries are stepping away from deals with China and removing that last sliver of hope for the Chinese.
This video was recorded before Peter’s backpacking trip in mid-July.
