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French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent snap elections very nearly ended in a far-right sweep of the National Assembly. This would have been France’s first far-right government since World War II. To prevent that outcome, French citizens across the rest of the political spectrum mobilized and voted. While voters did succeed in rebuffing a far-right takeover of France, they also left France without any clear governing majority or coalition moving forward, and it became apparent that Macron’s broad centrist alliance may be in trouble.
Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan dives into the French political crisis and asks what these results might mean for France’s — and Europe’s — future.
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The following is an excerpt from Peter’s July 12 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
After the first round of European Parliament elections, the French far right (represented by the National Rally) had a great showing. President Macron wasn’t too happy with that outcome, so he called snap elections to give his party a second shot at capturing a majority.
There are a few reasons that Macron knew this might yield more favorable results. There is a known shift in voting patterns between first and second round votes, where voters start more emotional and end more practical. There are lots of voting tactics Macron’s party could use to garner some more votes, like removing multiple candidates to prop up a single one. The most important one here was the timing; the other parties didn’t have enough time to pull together strong candidates, so Macron’s party could use that to their advantage. And Macron was right … mostly.
The National Rally took third in the snap elections, Macron’s party took second, and the Left came in first. The French aren’t out of the woods quite yet though. Since none of the factions had a majority to form a government, we’re going to see some French cooperation, and you can expect how that will go.
The threat of political instability within France could prove to be a big problem for the rest of Europe too. Without France (attempting to be) at the helm, and no other countries fit to step into that role, Europe will need to figure something out ASAP.
