Peter Zeihan

Geopolitical Strategist

Share
Commentary

How France, Germany and Poland can strengthen Weimar Triangle

Share

Peter Zeihan

Geopolitical Strategist

Share

On June 24, the Weimar Triangle nations of France, Germany, and Poland discussed a proposal to develop a European ground-launched, long-range weapon. This plan was just one item on the agenda for the trio of NATO states as they addressed European security in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Watch the video above as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains why the leaders of these nations, who typically focus on economic policies, are now working on military offensive strategies like deep-strike capabilities to deter any potential Russian advancements.


Be the first to know when Peter Zeihan publishes a new commentary! Download the Straight Arrow News app and enable push notifications today!


Excerpted from Peter’s July 1 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

In the post-Cold War world, France, Germany and Poland concocted the Weimar Triangle as a way to foster cooperation amongst the three countries. The trio has weakened over the years — due to differing national priorities — but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might necessitate getting the gang back together.

Thanks to their renewed military collaboration, the Weimar Triangle will be working to develop long-range weapons to enhance their defensive capabilities; the aim is to prevent Russia from falling back into its old ways. While these three countries have a good thing going, Henry Kissinger argued that a Weimar Quartet might be even better — if not necessary.

Ukraine would strengthen the triangle’s ability to ensure regional stability and effectively counter Russian threats. The bottom line is that when (or if, since we’re feeling optimistic) the Russians come knocking, these countries sure as hell want all the tools and partners necessary to stop them in their tracks…

Hey, everybody, Peter Zion here coming to you from the base of the serious part of West Spanish peak in New Mexico adjacent southern Colorado. Waiting for a storm to pass before I get out on the ridge line being six and a half feet tall and a thunder Boomer isn’t really the best call. Anyways, on the topic of things that have been, but very soon, maybe incredible. Today 27th of June, there was a summit of a group called the Weimar triangle, which is the leadership of France, Poland and Germany, the three critical countries of the Northern European plain. The Weimar triangle was envisioned in the aftermath of the Cold War when Poland is no longer a Soviet solid country. And it was on the way to joining the European Union and NATO organizations that pull into since joined. The idea was that in the long swath of bloody European history, France, Germany and Poland tended to find themselves on different sides of most major issues, leading to many of the major wars anyway. The idea was that if you get them all on the same side, then the Northern European plate is set up the most bloodsoaked part of the planet can be something better path of trade and cooperation. And you could argue that the, the idea of the Weimar triangle has been realized, but it’s not because of the triangle. You see, this title started in the 1990s. But by the time we got into 2002 1010, three countries drifted apart. France tried to be an independent pole in international affairs, which is always a mixed bag. Germany tried to forego the politics and forego security talks, and simply focus on trade by exploiting labor and infrastructure in Central Europe. And by taking a completely amoral position on really everything that mattered. And Poland was in and out, in and out every possible interpretation of what it means to be polish. Remember that Poland only had its first democratic elections in the early 1990s. And so here we are really only one generation later, there was a lot of deep divisions within Polish society about the role of government, or where Poland fits within Europe or within the wider world. And it’s not going to come to an equilibrium anytime soon. So by the time we get to about 2002, especially with the Iraq war in 2003, the Weimar triangle basically fell apart until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. And now the three states are starting to talk a lot. And instead of collaborating on things that are say economic in nature, the three of them today have decided to start working on joint military acquisitions and development, specifically for long range cruise missiles, things with a range in excess of 2000 kilometers. The reason is simple, as the Germans will tell you, if you go to war with the Russians, and you take a defensive position, then the entire wealth and resources of the entire Russian Federation or Soviet Union or Russian czarist Imperial Russia, whatever happens to be, can be collected into a single fist and punch at you wherever it wants to. And if you are left playing defense against that you’re going to lose. So you have to have a deep strike capacity that shatters the infrastructure and the logistical capability of the Russians far from the front. Throughout the Cold War. This is basically what NATO did by practicing things like the North Cape exercises, which weren’t necessarily designed to plug the Fulda gap, but instead to prevent the Russians from reaching the gap in the first place. Now where to go with this? It’s a realization, especially in Germany, which were the defense minister Pistorius is the one that’s heading up this effort, that we are really in a fundamentally different world and the foreign policies, especially of the French, and the Germans of recent years, simply doesn’t work anymore. And getting that sort of weapons capacity in Europe, gives the Europeans the ability to forestall a Russian invasion, if and should Ukraine fall because the polls know that they’re next and the Germans are fearful that they’re after the polls. So it makes sense to do this as soon as possible. The question, of course, is whether it’s going to work as well as my hike. And the answer is probably not. Because even if the triangle can come up with the perfect weapon system, you know, launch heat from the eastern half of Poland, you know, you’re still wait from huge parts of the Russian industrial base would remember, during World War Two with the German invasion of the Soviet Union, Stalin built a lot of industrial plant on the other side of the Urals. So, I mean, we’re talking about a big place here, which is why that greeny peacenik Henry Kissinger always said the post Cold era that no matter what your goal is, he’s a lost girl. See it via Weimar triangle has to be a Weimar quartet Ukraine has to be called in Russia is hostile while and then you get a bit of a civil war among the slobs they And you can watch any sort of assault from 1500 miles further east, just throwing a huge amount of Russian territory open. Remember that from the Ukrainian border to Moscow, it’s only about 350 miles. That’s not that far. But more importantly, crean is not technically part of the Northern European plate. It’s out actually in the Eurasian Heartland itself. And so you split that territory between Russia and Ukraine. And instead of actually being able to focus all of its attention on the Polish gap, it all of a sudden has this massive frontier to worry about nothing hurt why Putin launched the war in the first place. But second is, the better option is because if you’re moving forward is let’s assume that Russia gives up its genocidal irredentist ways and decides to join the family of nations. Well, splitting the territory of the heartland into more than one piece ensures that I never have a retrenchment that would be sustainable. And if there is a way forward, where Moscow is, you know, a decent place, and Russia becomes a normal country, it will do so with Ukraine on its side. And the only way to make sure that that works is to have the Weimar quartet fortified Ukraine, not just economically but also militarily, so there can’t be backsliding. Of course, the question then is, will that work? Well, that’s why we call it weak in history. All right, see on the next mountain

More from Peter Zeihan